Turkish Public to Vote in Major Referendum

ISTANBUL, Turkey (Sept. 10) -- On Sunday Turks will vote in a referendum on measures the government hopes will rein in the long-established power of the country's military and judiciary and solidify democratic rule in the country.

But the yes or no vote on 26 constitutional amendments may end up saying more about Turks' confidence in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has governed the country for the past eight years under the leadership of charismatic Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Numbers recently released by PollMark found 56.2 percent of Turks will vote yes for the amendments. The European Union backs them for promoting Turkey's democratization and stability, as do many international and domestic investors. The pro-business AKP has led the Turkish economy through a blistering recovery, with a projected 2010 growth rate of 11.7 percent -- far beyond the moribund numbers from the EU itself and second only to China in the G-20.

Such a performance would guarantee a government's popularity in most countries. Not so in Turkey, where domestic politics are rife with crisscrossing tensions between the secular and religious, rich and poor, and different ethnic groups.

Government critics say the amendments would give the AKP too much power over the judiciary and allow the Islamic-rooted party to undermine the secular principles of the Turkish state. In recent years, the AKP has focused on constraining the country's military, which has led three coups since 1960, and the judiciary, which came within one vote of banning the party in 2008 on the grounds of "anti-secular activities."

"The honest people of this country do not allow this," said Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), at a campaign rally. "Those in favor of democracy do not allow this, but the deaf officials of the European Union say, 'What a good thing it is you're doing.'"

While some of the amendments are focused on merely advancing the protection of privacy and personal information, the most controversial aspects of the reform package will see the Constitutional Court expand from 11 to 17 members and increase the government's ability to appoint judges. Opposition members believe that with the AKP in control of the military and judiciary -- the traditional guardians of modern Turkey's secular founding principles -- the county is heading toward increased autocracy. Some even accuse the party of wanting to establish an Islamic state within Turkey.

"I will vote no for sure, because if I say no I may have a chance to save my country," said Murat Ari, the owner of tattoo parlor in Istanbul. "AKP is trying to overcome secularism and the republic. It took 30 to 40 years for Iran to establish such a regime. AKP will do the same thing to destroy the current regime."

Such perspectives have been expressed from time to time for decades, reflecting the tension between Turkey's establishment as a secular republic and the strong Islamic traditions of rural Turks in particular.

But Iran? "These are childish arguments," said Henri J. Barkey, a Turkey expert at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.

He points out that the judiciary is not itself a democratic institution and that the amendments will establish a way of appointing judges similar to the one used to appoint members to the U.S. Supreme Court.

"In the U.S. presidents change, parties change. The same thing is going to happen in Turkey," Barkey said. "The opposition is so demoralized that they think there is no way they will ever win power, and that is why they are opposing the constitutional changes."

According to recent polls, a majority of Turks believe it is necessary to reform Turkey's current constitution, which was written after a bloody military coup in 1980. Nevertheless, Barkey said, the opposition has attempted to demonize the amendments in hopes of dealing a blow to the AKP.

"If I was a Turk, I would say we need a new constitution," Barkey said. "[These amendments] are really just a Band-Aid. The current constitution is a straitjacket on society." Most Turks, in fact, want a new constitution. But they have to decide first exactly how they feel about AKP.