Some 5,000 vacationers began to leave Ocracoke Island on North Carolina's Outer Banks just after 6 a.m. as the East Coast braced itself for Earl. The hurricane was downgraded to a Category 3 storm but could still graze the coastline with powerful 125 mph winds, causing dangerous storm surges and flooding. Officials pleaded with residents from South Carolina to Maine to be prepared to evacuate.
"Even though the track is not coming ashore, it's going to be close enough that many local officials may have to order evacuations," Federal Emergency Management Agency chief Craig Fugate said on ABC's "Good Morning America" today. "From the Carolinas to Maine, you really need to pay attention to this storm and make sure you're ready and have a plan today."
Hurricane warnings are in effect from Bogue Inlet in North Carolina to the Virginia line, and watches extend as far north as Delaware as Earl swirls northwestward toward the U.S. coastline.
The hurricane was centered 680 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., this afternoon, forecasters said.
The National Hurricane Center forecasters expect the center of the storm will remain offshore, ensuring that the worst of the storm would not directly affect the U.S. Given the current weather pattern and indications from some computer models, though, it's too early to dismiss the possibility of a track slightly farther to the west, one that would be much more dangerous for the region from eastern North Carolina to New England.
Mature hurricanes, such as Earl, go through a natural cycle that includes some fluctuation in strength, but forecasters do not expect Earl to significantly strengthen. The storm should remain close to its Category 3 strength for the next 24 hours or more -- although it could weaken slightly, forecasters said today.
Computer models for the past couple of days have been fairly consistent in forecasting a track that would keep the hurricane east of Cape Hatteras as a major hurricane (defined as Category 3 or higher) on Thursday night. The models project that the storm will turn more northeastward and increase its forward progress, passing to the east of Cape Cod on Friday night and then slamming into Atlantic Canada on Saturday night, most likely still as a hurricane.
However, some computer models predict the center of the storm will cross near eastern North Carolina and eastern New England.
The more western track would happen if the computer models were not accurate with the timing and intensity of an approaching upper-level trough of low pressure along the East Coast. If the low-pressure system arrives a little later than expected, the northeastward turn of Hurricane Earl would be delayed, resulting in a more ominous westward shift of the storm track.
The more western track is not considered by forecasters to be the most likely scenario; however, a relatively slight forecasting error could mean the difference between a dangerous hurricane and a near-miss.
Until the threat of a more western track is no longer possible, residents from North Carolina to Atlantic Canada are advised to monitor the track of the storm closely -- and heed all statements from local and federal authorities.
Fugate said the time to prepare is now. Residents in affected areas should know where they plan to go in case an evacuation becomes necessary. "Don't wait," he said. "These storms can speed up on you."