National Hurricane Center forecasters project the hurricane to remain offshore from the U.S., passing through the open water between the U.S. and Bermuda from Wednesday through Friday; however, just a slight westward shift of the storm track would mean that the powerful hurricane could directly affect the U.S. coastline.
With winds of 125 mph, Earl is the second major hurricane of the season. It is forecast to peak as a dangerous Category 4 storm with a sustained wind of at least 145 mph Tuesday and Wednesday.
With the projected path, the greatest effect of the hurricane would be dangerous rip currents and rough seas along the Eastern Seaboard this week.
Hurricane Earl has already taken a track considerably farther to the west than its predecessor, Hurricane Danielle, the season's first major hurricane, and the areas of greatest concern are eastern North Carolina and eastern New England, since those locations extend farthest east. A direct landfall is a risk for Atlantic Canada during Labor Day weekend.
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Earl has already left much of St. Maarten in the dark as heavy winds blew across the island, mostly empty due to a curfew imposed by the government, The Associated Press reported.
Tourist Alisha Daya of Milwaukee wore earplugs Sunday night, but the noise from the waves and winds still made sleeping difficult.
"It was loud because we were right on the ocean," Daya, 24, told AP. "Some furniture is flying around, but everything seems to be OK."
The storm damaged utility poles and tore the roofs off buildings in Anguilla, AP said.
"The winds are whistling outside," said police office Martin Gussie, who is working on the emergency effort. "When the gusts of wind come, each time it sounds stronger."
And about 350 people on Antigua were in shelters, emergency officials told AP, as at least 5 inches of rain fell amid 10-foot waves.
The key to the precise forecast track will be how Hurricane Earl interacts with a trough of low pressure along the East Coast -- one that has not yet formed. If the trough of low pressure develops as expected, it will ensure that the hurricane will remain offshore. In fact, the low-pressure system might also create enough upper-level wind (wind shear) to begin to weaken the storm by Friday.
If the low-pressure area were to develop a little more slowly -- or not be as strong as projected -- the door would be open to a more westerly course for the major hurricane. Forecasters warn that the average error in the forecast track is 200 to 300 miles on Days 4 and 5 of the forecast, which is when the storm will be passing to the east of the U.S. coast.
Until the forecast path is more certain, people in coastal areas of the East Coast, especially from North Carolina to New England, are advised to monitor the storm's track closely.
Danielle, meanwhile, is a minimal hurricane far out in the North Atlantic, with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. Forecasters expect the storm, which was about 400 miles southeast of Newfoundland late this morning, to lose its tropical characteristics later today and weaken as it accelerates farther away from North America over the next two days.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, the National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance about 1,050 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and says the system has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.