(Aug. 25) -- In the midst of a shocking Wednesday morning poll result, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski is hoping not to become the third Republican incumbent casualty this primary cycle as she trails surprising Tea Party Express challenger Joe Miller.

According to the Anchorage Daily News, because only 7,600 of the 16,000 requested absentee ballots have been counted, it will be at least a week until the final election results are known. As of Wednesday morning, Miller led the polls 52 to 48 percent, approximately a 2,000 vote margin.

Regardless of whether Miller is able to hold his lead, Surge Desk wonders: How is an underfunded, little-known attorney carrying a stunning lead into Wednesday morning of the primary? One might theorize that Miller's striking resemblance to Chuck Norris explains his success in the Senate race. Others offer the following four theories:

1. Mr. Mama Grizzly
Although few poll watchers predicted Miller's current success, the challenger candidate did generate some buzz early in the race when he received what -- despite only coming in the form of Facebook and Twitter broadcasts -- appears to be a valuable endorsement from Sarah Palin.

According to Daily Intel, "Miller was outspent 10 to one in the primary, and not a single poll suggested he had a shot at winning. That led many to wonder whether Palin still had any sway in Alaska. Note to press corps: Don't count your Mama Grizzlies until they've roared."

2. Proposition 2
Don't underestimate the value of correctly playing a single campaign issue.

According to The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, "the 'tea party'-backed Miller was boosted by an endorsement from Murkowski's longtime foe, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), as well as a controversial ballot measure, Proposition 2, that would require doctors to inform parents in order for a teenage girl to undergo an abortion. The measure appeared to be turning out conservative-leaning voters in record numbers: As of early Wednesday morning, total turnout on Prop 2 exceeded the combined turnout in the Republican and Democratic Senate primaries by more than 10,000 voters, with 55 percent voting in favor and 45 percent opposed."

While both candidates support the measure, Miller has positioned himself to win the related votes as the more socially conservative candidate. As Slate's David Weigel adds, "[Proposition 2] brought out pro-life voters who have never trusted Murkowski."

3. The Season of Anti-Incumbents?
Anti-incumbent theories this season are mixed thus far, but if anyone is riding that wave it has to be Joe Miller.

Joshua Saul of the Alaska Dispatch reports that, "Miller's campaign might also be able to attribute some success to red state politics in a year where anti-incumbent feelings are boiling over. That might have helped Miller overcome some significant strategic missteps."

4. Late Influx of Cash
Although Murkowski's significantly higher campaign funding is well documented -- the incumbent spent over $1.4 million compared to less than $200,000 spent by Miller -- according to the Alaska Dispatch, "Miller attributed his strong showing to a last-minute surge fueled by an influx of money that helped him spread his message across television air waves ... a warning that the federal government is on the verge of bankruptcy and new leadership is needed."