Selected Columns

Nowadays, everyone's ears perk up when Keisuke Honda of Japan's national soccer team utters a mere word. The same, however, cannot be said for Prime Minister Naoto Kan.

The words that pour out of Honda's "big mouth" defy listeners' expectations and throw them off balance, but the only thing coming out of Kan's mouth is a smokescreen.

It wasn't always this way. When Kan reshuffled the nation's leadership and advised previous Secretary-General of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Ichiro Ozawa to exercise prudence, people paid attention.

Kan, however, has subsequently eased off on his attacks and built up his defenses. He high-handedly closed the regular session of the Diet and distanced himself from beat reporters. His hope is to survive the upcoming House of Councillors election taking as few risks as possible. A fear of losing is dictating how he plays the game, sucking any impact out of his words.

According to a Mainichi poll conducted immediately after the launch of the Kan Cabinet on June 8, 66 percent of those surveyed supported the new administration. Other major newspapers had similar findings, with Asahi at 60 percent, Yomiuri at 64 percent, and Nikkei at 68 percent. The following week, however, the results had gone down by up to a dozen or so percentage points.

The reason for this sudden dip in support is said to be a June 17 press conference in which Kan announced his intention to increase the consumption tax from the current rate of 5 percent to 10 percent. This possible tax hike is undoubtedly a factor in falling ratings, but it would be wrong to call it the only factor.

When asked about a possible hike in the consumption tax, public opinion polls find that the response is divided. In recent surveys, the percentage of those in support of a tax hike has surpassed those who are opposed; a Mainichi survey has found that 52 percent support a tax increase, while 44 percent do not. So how do we explain the Kan Cabinet's sinking popularity?

Is it not because the new prime minister, who had risen to power calling for a breakthrough in the current state of stagnation, has caused disillusionment among the people by clinging onto minimal risk? Is it not because people are disappointed with a prime minister who seems satisfied with the resignation of the previous party leadership, doing very little since?

I cannot agree with those who argue that Kan has taken a risk by upholding the consumption tax as a major issue in the next election. The consumption tax has surely become a "topic of debate," but it cannot be considered a "point of contention." How can it, when the ruling party and the largest opposition are of the same position?

Rather, Kan has tried to avoid making the consumption tax a contentious issue by appropriating the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s tax proposal. Kan's call for a nonpartisan discussion on the matter makes sense, but there's nothing impressive about his argument.

For someone who has been praised as the Japanese political world's top orator, Kan, during his policy speech, public debates, and campaign speeches, has exhibited doubt and ambivalence, with his eyes downcast. His arguments, while based on cold logic, are flat and defensive and are growing wearisome. Public interest in the recent, by no means insignificant political upheaval is waning rapidly.

The biggest issue in the upcoming election is not about the consumption tax policy. Rather, it is about how we see the DPJ.

Last fall, the DPJ rose to power with the public's hope that it would engage in clean politics, mending the ways of bureaucrats busy saving their own skin. The party's cleanliness and competence, however, soon came into doubt. So do we interpret the replacement of the party's top two leaders as the laying down of a foundation for renewal, or do we see it as a sham, a mere "changing of the cover?"

What allowed Japan's national soccer team head coach, Takeshi Okada, to reclaim his honor after four consecutive losses prior to the World Cup, was the team's sweeping victory against Denmark. Okada had commanded that the team take every risk they could to attack.

The days leading up to the upper house election are not to be used stoppage time for Kan to protect his precious support ratings. It is a time for him to launch an attack, in which he must show whether he can grasp the hearts of the public as the leader of a political party and prove his leadership skills to the rest of the world.

Winning the upcoming match on July 11 will lead the DPJ government to stability. If it is defeated, there will be turmoil both within and without the party, likely touching off major political realignment. (By Takao Yamada, Expert Senior Writer)