VOX POPULI: Ruling party's boat may have sprung a leak

Popular elections called irefuda were held during the Edo Period (1603-1867) to choose shoya village headmen and other local administrators. According to a book by historian Michifumi Isoda, voters wrote konomu (I like) on the ballots for incumbents they wanted to re-elect, and kirai (I don't like) for those they wanted out. Isoda also notes that, according to a document from that period, incumbents were re-elected if they received votes of confidence from 60 percent of voters.

In Sunday's Upper House election, voters passed judgment on the ruling Democratic Party of Japan. The DPJ failed to maintain its pre-election strength, winning 44 of its 54 seats that were up for grabs.

In contrast, the opposition Liberal Democratic Party, which had been on a steady decline, rebounded and made gains.

The ruling coalition has lost its majority in the Upper House. If the 60-percent formula cited in the old Edo document were applied today, the ruling parties failed to get pass marks from voters in the interim assessment.

It is said that a statesman thinks of the next generation, while a politician thinks only of the next election.

By that yardstick, Prime Minister Naoto Kan was a statesman when he promised to build "a society with a minimal level of unhappiness" in his inaugural address. But he appears to have turned into a politician from around the time he started rushing into an early election to take advantage of the sharp recovery in voters' support for the government. The people are not stupid.

His transformation from statesman to mere politician was also manifest in his handling of the consumption tax issue. I applaud his courage and sense of responsibility for proposing the tax rate hike. But faced with hostile public opinion, Kan became flustered. He contradicted himself, made inane excuses and even blamed the mass media. I think many people felt his true colors were beginning to show.

In the Upper House election three years ago, the then-ruling LDP suffered a crushing defeat, which eventually led to last summer's historic regime change.

"The ruler is a boat and the people are water; the water can either float the boat or overturn it," goes an old Chinese proverb. In other words, the people will support their leader, but they'll throw him out if they are unhappy with him. That is exactly what last year's regime change was about.

But that water is now rocking the DPJ boat with a huge wave of betrayed hopes. The boat could even have a hole in it. If the Kan administration fails to act appropriately in recognition of this possibility, the boat will drift even farther from calm waters.

--The Asahi Shimbun, July 12

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Vox Populi, Vox Dei is a popular daily column that takes up a wide range of topics, including culture, arts and social trends and developments. Written by veteran Asahi Shimbun writers, the column provides useful perspectives on and insights into contemporary Japan and its culture.