Perspectives
Vote of confidence the biggest test for Kan in upper house election
The biggest issue in the July 11 House of Councillors election is whether the administration of newly elected Prime Minister Naoto Kan will receive a vote a confidence -- in other words, whether it will receive a second chance.
The administration will also be tested over its plans to raise the consumption tax to 10 percent, but this is no more than a sub-theme of the election.
It has emerged that about 60 percent of voters are prepared to give the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) a second chance. But about 10 percent -- the same level as the consumption tax the DPJ is eyeing -- are opposed to any consumption tax increase. This means that the DPJ will likely go into the election with the support of about 50 percent of voters. That being the case, the party is likely to win between about 55 and 60 seats, while the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will probably win between 35 and 45. It remains uncertain whether the number of seats won by Your Party will reach double figures.
Together with its 62 uncontested seats, the DPJ would, in such a scenario, end up with between about 117 and 125 seats, approaching the halfway mark of 122 seats. If the party is able to remain in a coalition with the People's New Party, it will be able to secure a majority in the upper house by picking off votes from other parties.
This situation could probably be seen as a vote of confidence for the Kan administration -- earlier, it had been predicted that if the DPJ had gone into the election under the leadership of former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, it would have only been able to secure between about 30 and 40 seats. It can be predicted that calls of support for Kan will arise mainly from among upper house members who retain their seats, and that the party leader's election scheduled for September will be brought forward and Kan will be confirmed without a vote.
In this scenario, there is no place for former DPJ Secretary-General Ichiro Ozawa, who previously wielded power behind the scenes. If there is no-one to carry him, then he will probably not venture out alone. Ozawa is even more of a realist than Kan. He will not enter a losing battle.
One may wonder, then, if Ozawa will take the 150 "Ozawa children" who won seats in the House of Representatives election in 2009, and leave the DPJ. That won't happen. Personnel reshuffling powers and money have slipped out of Ozawa's grasp and his former appeal is fading. Some of the Ozawa children are already drifting away from him. Furthermore, the LDP and New Komeito would probably hesitate to team up with Ozawa given past events.
Ozawa could, perhaps, return to power in the event of the DPJ suffering an unexpected defeat in the upper house election as a result of its proposal to increase the consumption tax. He would probably demand that Kan be replaced or that he receive power over personnel affairs and a share of political party subsidies. In another scenario, if Kan compiles DPJ lawmakers' opinions on a consumption tax hike this fiscal year, as he has promised, and the opinions of lawmakers are split, Ozawa's prospects are likely to gain attention.
At the present stage, however, neither of these possibilities seems likely. In reality, most people believe that an increase in the consumption tax cannot be avoided, and the Kan administration is likely to last a long time. Ozawa is likely to remain in the history books as a person who, over the past 20 years, brought about a change in the political situation in Japan, ending with a change in the government administration. (By Atsuro Kurashige, Expert Senior Writer)
(Mainichi Japan) June 25, 2010