Editorial
Transfer of power takes spotlight in Lower House race
As the House of Representatives was dissolved Tuesday for a snap general election, attention is focused on whether voters will choose a government led by the largest opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) or retain the coalition government of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito. The race that could be a major turning point in post-war politics has already started, even though the official campaign does not kick off until Aug. 18.
Prime Minister Taro Aso apparently regrets having failed to dissolve the chamber last autumn, shortly after he took office. An opinion poll the Mainichi Shimbun conducted last weekend showed the Aso Cabinet's approval rating falling 2 points from last month to 17 percent. The support rate for the LDP came to 18 percent, half the figure for the DPJ -- 36 percent. These survey results demonstrate that a growing number of voters are hoping for a transfer of power.
One cannot help but wonder why the LDP, which won an overwhelming victory in the September 2005 Lower House election, has lost public support just four years later.
There were various problems involving the last general election, in which then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi drew attention from voters by fielding "assassin" candidates to beat "rebellious" LDP legislators who had voted against his long-cherished postal privatization plan. The news media's coverage of Koizumi's election strategy was also highly questionable. However, Koizumi, who went ahead with postal privatization by overwhelming stiff opposition from within the LDP, obviously gave voters the impression that politics would change.
Despite the public's expectations, politics has not changed much since then. Koizumi stepped down without addressing the negative legacy of his structural reform policies, such as widening income disparity. His successor, Shinzo Abe, allowed LDP legislators who had been expelled for voting against the postal privatization bills in defiance of the party leadership to return to the party.
At that stage, the LDP's policies lost consistency. The party has since failed to decide whether to continue Koizumi's reform policies or change them. Moreover, the man behind the prime minister's desk has changed three times since Koizumi was in power, with none of those men asking the public if they support their administration by calling a general election, while at the same time implementing haphazard policies. The current confusion within the party is attributable to these problems.
Abe placed priority on constitutional amendment. However, the loss of a massive number of pension premium payment records, which is closely linked to people's livelihood, came to light, and the LDP suffered a humiliating defeat in the July 2007 House of Councillors race. A few months later, Abe abruptly resigned as prime minister, citing poor health.
His successor, Yasuo Fukuda, also dumped his administration only one year after he took office. Prime Minister Aso, who had evaded dissolving the Lower House under the pretext of concentrating on responding to the global economic crisis, is suffering from low approval ratings. Questions have been raised about whether he is qualified to serve as prime minister.
However, the LDP's repeated practice -- choosing a party leader and prime minister who it hoped would be popular with voters, but failing to support him after he lost popularity as if it forgot its responsibility for electing him -- is highly questionable. Many voters are certainly beginning to doubt whether the LDP has the ability to govern. This is apparently why an attempt by many LDP legislators to force Aso to step down has not gained support from the public.
At the same time, the DPJ's ability to hold the reins of government and leader Yukio Hatoyama's qualifications as prime minister are being tested.
Can a DPJ-led administration reform the bureaucracy and achieve a politician-led government? How far can it reduce the waste of taxpayers' money? Can it provide childcare allowances and make expressways toll-free? Can it fundamentally reform the tax system? How can it secure financial resources for its policy measures even though it has pledged not to raise the 5 percent consumption tax over the next four years? How will it coordinate its defense policies while there are wide gaps in views on the issue among its legislators? The DPJ should work out its manifesto to answer these specific questions. Hatoyama must also provide a further explanation of a political donation scandal involving his fund-raising organization.
The LDP was an opposition party from 1993 to 1994 when a non-LDP coalition led by former prime ministers Morihiro Hosokawa and Tsutomu Hata held the reins of government. However, this brief spell as an opposition party was due to a split of the LDP itself. In the July 1993 general election campaign in which political reform was a major issue, political parties other than the LDP did not specifically pledge to form a coalition government led by Hosokawa. In other words, since two major conservative parties merged to create the LDP in 1955, Japanese have had no experience of replacing the government and prime minister directly through their votes.
One wonders whether the upcoming general election will trigger such a transfer of power for the first time. Voters -- namely holders of sovereign power -- will determine the direction of Japan's politics. Japanese voters have perhaps never experienced such an exciting election.
(Mainichi Japan) July 22, 2009