Perspectives

As China flexes muscles, Japan shouldn't rush to make decision on Futenma relocation

Yoko Kato (Mainichi)

Sometimes, I'm struck by the urge to see the ocean in the dark of the night. For someone like me, born in Saitama Prefecture and now a Tokyoite, the ocean I saw in the middle of the night on Okinawa's Miyako Island was both a beautiful and terrifying sight. The ocean was pitch black, indistinguishable from the starless sky.

Gazing at the nighttime ocean, I thought about the people from the past who were thrown into the waters and perished, and those who survived. Further south from Miyako Island is the Bashi Channel, running between Taiwan and the Philippines. It was in these waters that many transport vessels were struck and sunk by U.S. submarines and carrier-based aircraft during the Pacific War.

In 1945, Naoshige Tsuchida, a historian specializing in ancient Japan, was picked up by a coastal defense ship after drifting off the southwest coast of Taiwan for nine and a half hours. The novelist Renzaburo Shibata, known for his "Nemuri Kyoshiro" historical novel series, also drifted for seven hours in the Bashi Channel before a destroyer rescued him. It would be impossible to relive the experiences of these two men, but I might be able to imagine the darkness of the sea that almost swallowed them.

As I stared at the dark sea, I thought about our forbearers who ventured into it. Today, we depend on cell phone software to tell us which planes to take and which trains to transfer to, and to inform us which roads will take us to our destination. But from the late seventh century to the beginning of the eighth century, around the time this country began to call itself Nippon, the inhabitants of this archipelago braved the seas despite their inadequate navigation skills and equipment, heading for Tang, Silla and Balhae. Needless to say, the purpose for such risky travel was to learn from advanced political systems and cultures.

What we must remind ourselves is that even before this time, however, a close relationship between Japan, China and the Korean Peninsula had already existed. More significantly, the relationship was not limited to the exchange of institutions and technologies. Accustomed to seeing Japan pictured on the edge of the Far East in maps, we Japanese have the tendency to see our country as a closed-off archipelago. But, as historian Yoshihiko Amino has pointed out, this very location of Japan on the periphery of the five oceans that comprise the eastern edge of the Eurasian continent, i.e. the Bering Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, the Japan Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, has great implications.

In the third century, the three kingdoms of Wei, Wu and Shu ruled China. The archaeologist Kaoru Terasawa explains that the reason the Wei emperor offered Wa (ancient Japan) preferential treatment was because he believed that Wa stretched far south from northern Kyushu, alongside the Chinese continent. Given such a (mis)understanding of geography, Wei valued Wa as an ally that could launch an attack on its rival, Wu -- located south of Wei -- from the sea, if needed.

For the Chinese continent, which experienced the repeated rise and fall of dynasties, a country located close to its easternmost borders was considered of crucial importance in case of serious conflict within its borders, particularly further inland. It is easy to understand that China today is faced with various "inland" problems; in addition to ethnic clashes in the Uyghur Autonomous Region, there is the political instability of neighboring Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Two incidents took place this April in which the Chinese navy indicated its proactive stance off the Okinawa coast. First was the case of a submarine navigating on the sea surface off the coast of Miyako Island. The other involved a Chinese navy helicopter approaching the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer Asayuki. Is it appropriate, then, to interpret these actions as evidence of the Chinese navy's ambition for aggressive expansion into the Pacific Ocean?

Perhaps a more significant Chinese diplomatic development is the fact that China saw fit to bring bilateral talks on the development of gas fields from the division chief level to that of bureau chief, and that a meeting on the issue was held in Beijing in early May. This is particularly noteworthy, as talks on the issue have been at a stalemate since a bilateral agreement was signed in June two years ago.

Still, it will not be easy for the world to find the best way to deal with China, which is well on its way to becoming a world superpower. According to John Ikenberry, an expert on U.S. foreign policy, China has the desire and the potential to seize the position of the U.S. as a hegemonic world power. However, if China were to compete against a European-U.S. order, the likelihood of China usurping that power would drop significantly.

The analysis is typical of Ikenberry, a critic of American unilateralism who has deliberated what sort of world order would bring about world peace following a war or economic crisis. We must remember, though, that this perspective was published in a paper prior to the latest global financial crisis.

Speaking of Europe, on which Ikenberry seemed to pin high hopes, Greece has been plunged into a debt crisis, triggered by the actions of investors trying to pay for Wall Street's recklessness out of the pockets of the weak. You could say that the EU is being forced to pay for the doings of the U.S. In Germany, there has been strong objection towards the government's plan to help bail Greece out of its crisis. It appears that it will be some time before we can hash out how to deal with China. We must not rush to make a decision about Futenma. (By Yoko Kato, professor of Japanese history at the University of Tokyo)

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