Sign of the Times
Pension time bomb ticking as social recluses hit retirement age in 2030
Are you familiar with the "2030 problem?" Probably not, because I thought of it.
All jokes aside, the problem has been on my mind of late. As I've discussed in this column in the past, Japan's hikikomori (shut-in) population is rapidly aging. According to studies I've conducted as part of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's research group on hikikomori, the average age of shut-ins in this country is over 30. Some of the reasons for this trend are believed to be the increasing numbers of shut-ins who have been in a state of isolation for 20 years or more, and adults becoming shut-ins after joining the workforce.
The 2030 problem is closely linked to the "first generation" of hikikomori who are past their mid-40s, of which there are 100,000, according to modest estimates. In the year 2030, that is, approximately 20 years from now, many of these "first generation" shut-ins will be 65 years old. In other words, they will become eligible for pensions.
What does this mean? It means that we will suddenly see the emergence of a population of "senior citizens" who have heretofore lived on their parents' pensions and have hardly ever paid taxes. Because their parents have paid their pension premiums, however, they will be qualified to receive pension payments. But as we all know, pensions are partially funded by the taxes we pay. While these seniors will have legal eligibility, will we, as taxpaying citizens, be accepting of that fact?
Hardly likely. I suspect we will not be any more generous in 20 years' time than we are now when it comes to pensions. Regarded as pension freeloaders, these first-generation hikikomori pension recipients will no doubt become the brunt of heavy criticism.
This is not a prophecy. It is the result of putting together just two or three phenomena that are unfolding as we speak. It would be far more bizarre for this not to happen. But is this problem merely "their" responsibility?
An index that is sometimes used to assess the overall burden of disease is the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). It is an integrated way of identifying the loss of time resulting from disabilities and deaths from disease. Not only is it considered an important index in making national health policy because of the ease with which it allows for international comparisons, it makes it easier for us to identify illnesses that may not directly cause death, but are still socially significant.
Using the DALY index, cancer, depression and cerebrovascular disorders are the top three causes of the loss of "healthy" years of life. Perhaps some readers will find the results surprising. Indeed, by employing the DALY index, the importance of developing measures against depression and other psychological disorders becomes crystal clear.
In the U.S., for example, the funds pumped into research on disease and disorders is said to be directly correlated to DALYs. Such an approach, however, is rarely employed in Japan. Budgets continue to be allocated disproportionately to physical ailments; money allotted to psychological illnesses is about half. Underlying this state of affairs is not so much the recognition that preventing or curing illnesses that directly lead to death is of great importance, but rather a traditional downplaying of psychological problems.
The DALY index can be applied to Japan's shut-in situation. While hikikomori is not necessarily a disease, spending one's life doing nothing against one's own will amounts to a loss of "healthy" life years. Furthermore, as demonstrated in the 2030 scenario, it can strip others of their time.
The reason I bring this up is because I am worried that the new Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government will carry on neglecting psychological problems. For example, the "Wakamono Jiritsu Juku" (youth independence school) was nearly abolished in the recent cost-cutting deliberations conducted by the Government Revitalization Unit.
Indeed, many youth support measures are not cost-effective in the short-term. But we undertake such programs with the faith that the seeds we sow today will some day blossom. Sometimes, whether or not an issue is of great priority becomes evident only in certain time frames. From a DALY angle, there is no question that shut-ins and other youth problems are a pressing concern.
There is another reason that I've voiced my prediction of our national situation in 2030.
What I've discussed here is something that will most likely happen in the near future. I have revealed the problem as something that can possibly be averted if we act now. If the troublesome scenario becomes a reality despite my warnings, we will be partly responsible. At least, I think so. It will mean that we refused to act despite being aware of the possibilities. In that sense, we will be accomplices.
I pray that my fears are unfounded, but at the same time, I hope that such fears will help us prevent such a future from coming true. (By Tamaki Saito, psychiatrist)
Click here for the original Japanese story
(Mainichi Japan) December 27, 2009