POINT OF VIEW/ Yoichi Kato: Any U.S. nuclear initiative must include China

Reducing the U.S. military presence in Japan and revising the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement were focal points of deliberations for the formation of the three-party coalition led by the Democratic Party of Japan.

Both are crucial issues with regard to maintaining the Japan-U.S. alliance. However, what the U.S. side regards with greater concern is Japan's wavering trust in the extended deterrence provided by the United States through its nuclear umbrella.

Washington's concern is that an inappropriate policy response could open the way for Japan and South Korea to arm themselves with nuclear weapons, shaking the foundation of the security order not only in the Asia-Pacific region but also the entire world.

Japan may consider nuclear armament in one of the following two scenarios: The United States stops providing the nuclear umbrella, or even if Washington continues to offer it, Tokyo does not trust it. There are growing apprehensions in the United States that the second scenario might take shape. In particular, Washington remains nervous about debate in Japan over arming itself with nuclear weapons in response to North Korea's nuclear tests. However, such talk has not been a major topic of the new DPJ-led government.

The United States is trying to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear program through the six-party talks. At the same time, it is once again stressing the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella covering Japan and South Korea. A new round of talks also started between Tokyo and Washington.

However, the U.S. initiative lacks an important perspective: How to strengthen and rebuild the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) regime that includes the reduction of China's nuclear warheads.

Many people argue that the NPT system has already broken down with the "breaking of rules" by such nuclear powers as India, Pakistan and North Korea. Article 6 of the treaty requires signatories to "pursue negotiations in good faith" for nuclear disarmament. While the United States has agreed to a further mutual reduction of strategic nuclear arsenals with Russia, it has only called on China to stop the production of fissile material. China itself also has yet to show a commitment to nuclear reduction.

From time to time, the Japanese government has stressed the need for China and fellow nuclear powers other than the United States and Russia to implement measures for "global nuclear disarmament," as former Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada put it. The DPJ also noted in its manifesto that it will "work toward a nuclear-free Northeast Asia."

However, Washington is calling for a "sequenced approach," in which the United States and Russia will take the lead in nuclear arms reduction and have China follow them. Moreover, when asked by how much the United States should cut its nuclear arsenal before asking China to do the same, U.S. Undersecretary of Defense Michele Flournoy merely said: "That's a good question."

Furthermore, another high-ranking U.S. government official stressed that the U.S. deterrence is sufficient, saying, "China's nuclear capability is very limited." Given that the United States possesses thousands of nuclear warheads, vastly more than China, the explanation may be reasonable from a military standpoint.

Still, the gap in the nuclear arsenals between the two nations does not justify the argument that China does not have to cut down on its nuclear weapons for now. Such an argument runs counter to the spirit of the NPT. It also ignores the fact that the Japanese public's sense of security against nuclear threats significantly leans not only on the U.S. nuclear umbrella but also on the NPT regime. It also supports the view of some experts who say the Obama administration is lenient toward China.

Above all, unless the United States demands China implement nuclear disarmament, it would only add to the cynicism that the idea of "a world without nuclear weapons" advocated by President Barack Obama is nothing more than a restrictive and selective proposition.

The author is an Asahi Shimbun senior staff writer.(IHT/Asahi: October 27,2009)