Editorial

An opinion poll that the Mainichi Shimbun conducted over the weekend following the election of Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama on Saturday has suggested that voters' calls for a transfer of power are deep-seated.

The approval rating for the largest opposition party rose 6 points from the previous poll to 30 percent, again surpassing that for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which came to 23 percent, down 4 points.

An earlier survey the Mainichi conducted prior to the leadership race showed that more people believed that deputy leader Katsuya Okada was better suited to serve as party leader than Hatoyama. There was also criticism that the Hatoyama leadership, backed by former leader Ichiro Ozawa, could be of a dual power structure in which Hatoyama will lead the party under the clout of his predecessor. It should be kept in mind that the latest survey was conducted amid these circumstances.

Most notable is that 34 percent of the respondents said Hatoyama is more suited to serve as prime minister, well above 21 percent who believe Aso is more qualified to head the executive branch of the government.

In an April survey, 21 percent of the pollees were in favor of Aso, 9 points more than those who selected Ozawa.

Even though 42 percent of the respondents in the latest survey said neither of the two is suited to be prime minister, the survey results have clearly demonstrated that the trend in public opinion on the LDP and the DPJ has changed following Hatoyama's election.

At the same time, however, the percentage of those who expect much from Hatoyama and the ratio of those who do not were equal, at 49 percent, and 68 percent said their evaluation of the DPJ has not changed following the change in its leadership.

The mixed reactions to Hatoyama's election shows that voters are viewing the political situation in a calm manner and that Hatoyama's appointment will not likely trigger a DPJ boom. Nevertheless, the election of the new leader -- which put an end to a dispute over whether Ozawa should step down to take responsibility for a political donation scandal involving one of his aides -- was advantageous to the DPJ and apparently saved hope for a transfer of power which had been dwindling.

Over half, 56 percent, of the respondents in the latest survey said they want the DPJ to win the next general election for the House of Representatives, 27 points more than those who hope to see the LDP as the winner.

The gap is wider than the difference between the approval ratings for the DPJ and LDP. The results apparently came as a shock to the LDP, which had hoped that Hatoyama would win the election because it thought it could criticize him as an "Ozawa puppet." The approval rating for the Aso Cabinet also declined again to 24 percent. It is partially attributable to the resignation of former Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshitada Konoike after a magazine reported that he stayed at a hotel in Atami, Shizuoka Prefecture, with a woman while the government was busy taking measures to deal with the outbreak of swine flu.

The results of the latest poll could affect when Aso will dissolve the Lower House for a snap general election.

The next Lower House election will be a crucial political battle. The fact that neither the LDP nor the DPJ is enjoying a surge in popularity allows voters to calmly examine their policies to see which is more suitable to take over the reins of government.

It goes without saying that Hatoyama's ability as a political leader will be tested from now on. He is required to make the party's manifesto, on which it had not placed top priority under Ozawa, more elaborate and refined. The quality of the parties' policies will certainly determine the outcome of the upcoming election.