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I don't know how many people Nick has to throw out before he really gets noticed for strength and accuracy of his arm. I wonder if he can still pitch lol.

the guys rated ahead of nick are really really good. maybe if/when the orioles start playing more meaningful games nick's performance will stand out more to the voters.

Seriously Rembrandt, I agree. What else does he have to do besides lead the Majors in Outfield Assists 2 years in a row (assuming his lead holds up this year).

Does it suprise anyone there are NO Orioles on this list.
The minors are the minors. Prove you can bring it to the big show!

Last Night:
Another game...another loss
But we are making progress!
We have a plan!
The team hasn't given up!
Again, cry all you want about how good this team is. The true barometer of a team's quality of play is measured in their wins / losses at this level.

Every other stat like leading or near the top in the majors in ERA and unearned runs is just the icing on the cake!

To the few on here, dont forget to make your ice mocha with just a hint of orange fools aid. What a dillussional way to start your morning!

LOL

Ask Reimold, Mora, and Weiters about JP Howell's change up. Outstanding last night. Completely unhittable.

Another day......
Another loss..........

15-30 in the AL east now I think? Wow. A .333 winning percentage in our own division. Well done Andrew.

It sure seems like a lot of people are starting to turn against Andrew MACFAIL and his "plan". People are fed up with the BS, the ineffective stop-gaps and the notion that rookies alone can carry this team.

Roch and idea for the school!
Can you have a "game countdown" clock on your page to countdown the losses until we are assured another sup-par .500 season.
We are already a rediculous 23 games under .500

Sort of like a counter that measures when you clinch the division but only in reverse!

I like the Sun's headline this morning
"Orioles are food for the fishes"
MORE LIKE MEAT FOR THE SHARKS

WAY TO GO ANDREW
aka Mr Electricity!

Nick Who? The point is, as fkterp noted, Nick Markakis does not get noticed until the Orioles starting making some noise in the AL. Nobody is afraid of them and nobody knows who their players are.

Roch, 7:04? It's summer time, get some sleep.

One poster earlier hit it on the mark: Andrew has left so many holes in this team that basically 2010 is going to be a write off as well.

It's time to fire this guy and hire someone from the Marlins front office. Bob Flemming or Dan Jennings maybe. They know how to rebuild down there AND they would have a much bigger budget to do so up here.

FIRE ANDREW!

As long as Nick's arm continues to go unnoticed, baserunners will continue to challenge him. And they'll continue to get nailed for it.

Robinson Cano is the third best 2B defensively? Highly doubt that!

"Tool Time."

You dedicated a whole freakin' column to Brummie?

Very interesting list, Roch. Thanks!

There was a conversation last night between Buck and Jim about the difficulty and importance of pitch-calling for a catcher. Thought I’d contribute some numbers to the discussion. For each of our starting pitchers, I looked at their OPS+-against splits, by catcher, to see how much offense was generated by hitters with Wieters vs. Zaun calling the pitches. Remember, you want the OPS+-against numbers to be low. 100 is average. Here are the results, with Wieters first, Zaun second, listed in order of innings pitched. Positive totals mean that hitters hit that pitcher better when Matt was catching by roughly that percentage. Negative totals mean hitters hit that pitcher better when Gregg was catching:

Jeremy: 116, 91 = +25
Bergy: 68, 54 = +14
Berken: 110, 122 = -12
Hendrickson: 88, 111 = -23
Koji: 87, 84 = +3
D-Her: 140, 48 = +83
*Hill: 125, 92 = +33

*Hill’s second OPS+-against isn’t Zaun (who never caught him, apparently) but Moeller.

So what have we learned? Well, the numbers favor Gregg, certainly, although we should remember that these are small samples and that those totals for each pitcher are impacted by pitcher variables as well as catcher variables.

For instance, let’s look at Hendrickson for a minute. He and Berken are the only pitchers who have pitched better with Matt catching. Mark pitched poorly at the beginning of the year as a starter, and Gregg was the starting catcher then. He’s pitched better since going to the pen. Why? Well, probably because he’s not facing batters a second and third time, not because Matt is now the starting catcher.

Berken? Well, as his numbers indicate, he hasn’t pitched particularly well to either catcher, although he pitches a little less poorly with Matt behind the plate. Hard to imagine this small difference is significant.

Koji at +3 doesn’t seem to care whom he throws to. I’m not sure he’s paying much attention to his catcher.

Bergy has pitched extremely well with both catchers, although a little better with Zauny. Again, probably not significant.

Jeremy stated a preference for Zaun at one point, and the numbers bear him out. He’s a better than average pitcher, even this year, with Zaun behind the plate, and not nearly as good when he’s working with Matt.

Rich Hill, unfortunately, was a disaster this year, but with Moeller behind the dish he was actually a better-than-average pitcher. With Matt, though, look out. Again, it’s also true that Hill was hurt, and his numbers probably reflect his declining performance, which just happened to coincide with Matt coming up.

The number that surprised me the most, though, was David Hernandez’s enormous split between Gregg and Matt. Zaun’s experience won out in a big way over the comfort of working with a familiar catcher. With Gregg calling pitches, David was the uber-Bergy. With Matt donning the tools of ignorance, D-Her has pitched much worse than Hill did.

Hmm, maybe Trembley was on to something wanting the rookies to work with an experienced catcher. Bergy’s been good enough and Jason bad enough that it hasn’t mattered that much, but David’s numbers are pretty skewed. Again, we’re talking about a total of 250 plate appearances against David all year, so these aren’t big samples, but still.

I wouldn’t get too agitated about these numbers, but they do tend to suggest that catchers matter, and that experience counts for something.

The thing I notice is, we may not be on the scene now... but we are coming!
It definitely makes you feel good about the O's future!

I'm a little shocked that Izturis wasn't in the top three defensive shortstops (not to mention Markakis' snub in the OF).

This feels more like a popularity vote for prom queen than a meaningful survey. Oh well.

There must be some truth to the votte, though because certainly no Orioles should be in the top 50, let alone top three, in strike-zone judgement (LOL)!

Roch-
This is what makes me sick.
How do you lead the league in assist 2 years in a row, at age 25, and NOT be considered at least in the top 3 arms?
This is why I hate Angelosss. Because this would NEVER have happened back in the day. Cal Ripken was the most famous player in baseball for years and got so much respect and admiration.
This really is just plain studid.
I won't curse. I don't remember cursing on my last post, but, this leads me to believe he will get snubbed again for golden glove, and that.....can I curse in Spanish? French? Zaireish?

Melvin Mora didn't make it??? No Respect! Weren't there runners on base last night for each of Melvin's at bats and he failed to advance anyone?

fkterp - Well said on Nick.

The Wieters homerun and Mickolio's relief were the obvious bright spots last night. Need more? Pittsburgh and KC both won last night, allowing the O's to move ahead of the Pirates and just one game behind the Royals in the fight for the #2 spot in the June 2010 draft.

Heres an idea JUST THROW EVERYONE OUT!!
MAKE A HUGE FUSS ABOUT IT
AND LET ESPN DO THE REST,
Nick Markakis

Brian - I read your post last night, and came close to responding, but wanted to think about it. I've realized there's some of our Pie battle inherent to it. The "Pie Huggers" can't defend that his full season, and career stats, aren't more than just another 4th OF. But we like his potential, we like that he's young and was a top prospect, we point out how good his defensive stats are (even if not many people use "UZR" as a stat), and how well he's hit in limited at bats since April. You've largely criticized his every move (outside of praise for his cycle the other night).

In Huff's case, some can point to his numbers this year. Terrible defensively (that same "UZR"), an OPS of .725 despite playing a hitter's position. You can point out how dominant he was last year, and that he's just about the only veteran on this team that opposing pitchers might respect as a proven middle of the order bat (even if he hasn't shown it this year). While stats can underlie everything, we're all subjective to some extent and will look for the stats and impressions that back up our own opinions.

I can't comment on your sources regarding MacPhail's personal opinion of Huff, but it would surprise me. It generally doesn't behoove a GM to have a personal opinion of any player. Sure, Beane called Tejada "Mr. Swing at Everything" but he wasn't about to get rid of him because he hated his approach. MacPhail's comments about keeping options open this offseason was pretty much what any GM would say. It wasn't disingenuous like saying "you returning to Baltimore would be a dream come true." Even if he felt it, he couldn't say "I've always hated you as a player, now you're gone" because he's got a team to run, and statements like that will prevent you from doing your job (future free agents might well file that away and remember it as a reason not to sign here).

Huff will be a Type B free agent, worth only a compensation pick. He won't be offered arbitration in today's economic climate, so that's a moot point. We dealt him to save a couple million bucks, and acquired a 22-year old with a very good fastball and below average secondary pitches. Yes, his ceiling is probably that of a run-of-the-mill middle reliever. It's the sort of deal that is typical: no one really wins, everyone pretty much forgets it happened within a year or two. It probably will not be hard to replace Huff's contributions over the next six weeks by using Wigginton and Scott at first, getting Pie more at bats, and using Aubrey off the bench. You are right, that it could have been Mora had Mora not had the no trade clause. That's just the reality of the contracts each guy had, and what MacPhail had to work with.

Anyway, I hope this was a rational discourse to settle you down some. I try pretty hard to see everyone's point of view and avoid name calling. And by the way, every person who complains about Wieters is a moron. ;)

Melvin Mora needs to stay on the bench or cut (but that's disrespectful, apparently he feels you can suck and be able to play forever). Two critical at bats last night with RISP and he strikes out twice. I've had it with him. Trembley needs to show him respect? Are you kidding me? Tenure doesn't buy you this much patience. I continue to watch every single game but i'm starting to lose it, really fast. Mora has to be benched.

Did these boneheads really not include Albert Pujols anywhere on their list?
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That was the AL list. - Roch

Roch, Your choice of the player of the second half, Nick Markakis, is having a fabulous second half not only offensively, but defensively as well. It's hard to imagine anybody playing better defensively. He is fundamentally so sound; no bonehead plays for him And his new stance doesn't seem to have created any new holes in his swing, while increaing his power. There is a good chance that he'd crack the list of baseball's top 5o player's and best defensive outfielders next year.

He will get noticed when he plays in games that actually matter and the Baltimore Orioles care about winning. 95% of the names on those lists play for teams who are competitors. Until the the folks of this organization, the owner, the management, and the players actually care about winning baseball games, playing hard, playing smart, and playing a fundamentally sound game; No one will recognize the individual talents of the players.

Berken.... maybe they could trade him for Jason Werth? He is one stockpiled arm they could trade. Get AM enough cocktails & maybe he can get er done...

fkterp -- yes, the guys listed are good (although hasn't Hamilton been on the DL for a good bit this year?), but let's look at the stats: Markakis is currently tied for 2nd in the majors with 12 outfield assists, whereas BJ Upton has 6, and Ichiro & Hamilton each have 4 (as does Nolan Reimold, interestingly enough). Not to mention that Nick led the league last year with 17, right? Seriously, who put that survey together? ugh

Sizemore finally has a year that is going to put him out of the Top 3 Outfielders for Gold Glove voting and Granderson is going to get in? Nick keeps getting snubbed...

I found this quote from Huff in the news this morning:

"Normally at this time of year, you're just grinding it out," Huff said. "You've got your [offseason] vacation plans. You've got [a trip to] Hawaii all booked up. This is exciting. This is like a second Opening Day."

How indicative that he had no interest in helping the Orioles do more than get the season over with so he could go home.

I don't get how you can have the guy leading in outfield assists not in top 3 discussions. Especially after that game he had in right last night

I thought Nick had the best outfield arm.

Roch,
If you get a chance, can you ask one of the FO folks whether there is any consideration of Waring or Bell playing SS. If so, that would be one hell of an impressive infield with both of those dudes in the LU together

. Add them to Riemold, Jones, Wieters, Markakis, Roberts/Turner, and Snyder and you should be able to compete with the big guys, huh?

Just fyi from Baseball America about our draft:

"Winners And Losers

We analyze who did well at the signing deadline"

Baltimore Orioles. The O's also are rebuilding their organization via the draft. This year, instead of investing most of their draft budget in one player (such as Matt Wieters or Brian Matusz), the Orioles spread their money throughout their draft class. First-rounder Matt Hobgood got $2.422 million at No. 5 overall, but then Baltimore loaded up. Second-round shortstop Mychal Givens got $800,000, after it seemed negotiations had broken down. The O's then lavished near-million dollar bonuses on 11th-rounder Michael Ohlman ($995,000), a power-hitting prep catcher from Florida, and hard-throwing lefthander Cameron Coffey ($990,000), a 22nd-round pick. Ravens fans will also like their signing of 31st-round pick Mike Flacco, brother of Ravens QB Joe Flacco.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-dish/2009/268716.html

Hmmm, looks like the people that actually know baseball (and not in a biblical sense) think the FO has done pretty well in this aspect of building a franchise.

Daydreaming day....whereas Nolan is not a common name in our society, ask Reimold how he came to be named Nolan. Any chance he is named after Nolan Ryan? As I said a daydreaming type of day.

Sweet Pea,

Could you have the O's crack PR staff find out how many times Wieters has registered the last out of the game? Thanks.

Larry McPhail...ha..cant even get that right..this is a story from the tigers website

Like the lineup, Leyland said he plans to play Huff's positioning by ear. Both Tigers general manager David Dombrowski and Huff's former boss, Orioles president of baseball operations Larry MacPhail, emphasized that the 32-year-old can play left field and third base as well as first base and DH, where he had played this year in Baltimore. He hasn't started in the outfield since 2006 or at third since last year, but they're options for him in Detroit

What about the NL? And did they do an overall list?

Nick consistently leads the league in assists because the Orioles pitchers allow so many base runners and give up so many frozen ropes to right field. I'm not trying to take anything away from Nick who is a great outfielder. Just sayin'...........

The only good thing about Markakis not being noticed is that teams will continue to overlook him and he will continue to gun down runners on the base paths (for what that’s worth—we still lose games). It’s tough to argue against most of these selections, and outfield recognition for lists like this and the All Star game and Gold Gloves is tough to get because the competition is always tough (has it ever been otherwise?). Markakis would get more recognition if he played with a better team and if he hit for more power. Yes, it sounds ridiculous, but I think if he hit 35+ home runs each year, there would be more national discussion of his defensive prowess.

I saw Mickolio strike out Longoria on three pitches last night and I thought, this guy’s time has arrived. It’s time for him to be a fixture up here. Now that I said something, watch him get shelled his next time out.

As for Huff, it’s easy to criticize the team for being cheap here and dumping Huff’s remaining $2 million or so in salary. But I think what we’re seeing here is that the club is finally putting money where it should have been put before—into building its farm system, and into its current best players like Markakis and Roberts—and moving it away from overpaid average players like Huff. The O’s could’ve kept him through the season and played the arbitration game, but he would’ve likely accepted if they even offered, and we’d be talking how foolish the O’s were if they became obligated to a $8 or $9 million salary for Huff in 2010 when he could probably be had for much less in free agency. Maybe the O’s could’ve gotten more in a trade, but there didn’t seem to be much demand for him this year or even last year when he was having his career year.

Of course, we’ll need to see if the O’s use their money more wisely this offseason and get better established players from outside the club that improve the club so we don’t call them cheap. They’ll be in the usual bind they’re always in—top free agents likely won’t come here no matter the money offered because the club is a long-time loser. If they fail at this, we can call them cheap, sure, but I think it’ll likely be more because they’ve had 12 straight losing seasons. They showed a decided lack of cheapness when they extended Markakis and Roberts last offseason. If they want to improve substantially, and by extension spend more money, they will need to get into the trade market, an area they have more control over than free agency.

Roch-
I will say the one thing that some people have right.
Tickets cost the same in September as they do in April. Shouldn't they at least TRY to win. You buy a ticket to see the team win. I guess thats why we will be under 2million again. Gross.

I just don't know why people attack YOU because the O's suck. I guess its because you don't bash them. Everybody else does. I guess because it is so frustrating. You just want to scream. They can't catch a break. We just lose and lose and lose.
Maybe you could cave in and just do a post like, "Mora is just terrible, why not just call up some kid at AAA and let him get some experience. I can take a 24 yr old not being able to advance a runner, or going 0-4 every night. That is the reason DT has to go."

Like Isturis getting thrown out at 3rd base on a ground ball to short with 1 out. Or NO ONE being able to bunt on this team. Or Luke Scott. Just his entire existence.
What I am so scared of, is this is carrying over to 2010. They are not going to do anything in the offseason. They talk about money, despite having one of the lower payrolls for 10 years now.
You get the feeling that if these few pitchers don't turn into Cy Young, we are totally screwed. Simply, they are not going to spend any money on certain talent. I hope they prove me wrong. I hope they are very active at teh meetings and that this is the last year of total frustration.

Ray Said
"The Wieters homerun and Mickolio's relief were the obvious bright spots last night. Need more? Pittsburgh and KC both won last night, allowing the O's to move ahead of the Pirates and just one game behind the Royals in the fight for the #2 spot in the June 2010 draft."

Ray it is sad this early in the season you have to post a comment like you did. But I totally agree with you.
What I do disagree with you on is the fact, does it really matter where we finish when they will pick someone who is clearl a "signable" player instead of the best player available?????/

FIRE ANDREW FIRE ANDREW...

Your truely an idiot Brummie. All Andrew has done is take possibly the worst farm system in baseball & turn it into one of the best in a few short years. This org finally has a plan & things are looking up. Everyone recoginizes that. The losing now is part of rebuilding process. Dont judge Andrew based on the pro clubs results. he inherited a disaster from top to bottom. Duh

It's been so long since we've had any good ball players in Baltimore that we have no idea what they look like. We're convinced our players are top of the league talents, but the really aren't. Not one of our guys that plays on a consistent basis has a SLG% over .500 and not one has an OPS of .900. Great that Nick leads the league in outfield assists...you know why he does? Because runners don't respect his arm. They test him because they know he throws off line quite a bit.

I agree w/ having CF's as the best fielding OF's, but Kakes needs to be on there for strongest arm. Doesnt he lead the league in put outs?? His arm is ri-DUNK-u-LOUS

Great header, Roch!

For those claiming Nick’s arm superiority, here are the FanGraph ARM stats, in runs above replacement, so far this year in the AL. So is Nick at the top? Drum roll . . . (the excitement is killing me!) . . . .

1. Adam Jones 5.4

Oh my goodness! We’re complaining about Nick’s arm being overlooked by all those b*stard opposing managers, and here we are overlooking our own player! According to the fine folks at FanGraphs, the best outfield arm in the league belongs to none other than Bazooka Jones!

So where does Nick rank?

2. Ryan Sweeney 5.3
3. Bobby Abreu 5.2
4. BJUpton 4.3
5. David Dejesus 4.2
6. Alex Rios 3.1
7. Nick Markakis 2.4

Obviously, Nick’s not in the top three according to this rating, although being seventh among all AL outfielders is still pretty darn good. As Hooves noted, the upside of having an unrecognized player is that more players run on him, which gives him more chances to throw people out and therefore better assist totals. For once, it’s good to be from Baltimore! See, the best arms don’t throw the most people out; the under-recognized arms do.

So what have we learned, class? That Nick has a very nice arm, but Adam? He’s got a bazooka.

OCJ

Thanks for the numbers. They bear out what we all should know is inherently true...catching experience is huge.
It goes right down to pitch placement in certain situations.

I remember Cal Ripken stating in Men at Work...when Mussina was pitching and there was a man on first....Hoiles would set the target at a certain place for a slider.

Ripken would move to a particular spot...he said if Mussina threw the pitch where Hoiles has set up, there was only one place it could be hit.

That kind of knowledge doesn't happen overnight. It's also why catchers end up becoming managers, they have to think the game.

Keeping in mind that a lot of outfield assists indicates that opponents remain willing to run on you. Don't you think Ichiro's low total says a bit about what base runners think when a ball is hit in his direction?

Albers has been replaced with Mickolio....a move that had to be made....Next move that has to be made is... get Berken out of the rotation. .. Do we have to watch his quest for a 20 loss season ?....ROCH, Since the powers that be feel Andy Mitchell is not a prospect do you know of another we could give some experience to for the remainder of the season ???
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Not if they're not pitching well enough to get called up. Arrieta could be here if he was having a better Triple-A season. - Roch

OCJ - thanks for the words of reason and encouragement. I had not meant to imply that last winters' trades and acquisitions were all mistakes. I agree that Izturis was a good pickup (I forgot about him, which goes to show how much SS is no longer a problem for us.) I also feel like there was decent enough reason to take a shot on Hill, Freel, Pie, Hendrickson, Hennessey, Wiggy, Zaun, Uehara, etc. I was simply lamenting that, while some of these guys added or are adding a bit of value at little or no cost, and others (Hill and Pie, for example) might still surprise us and emerge as significant puzzle pieces, the sad fact of the matter is that the 08/09 winter will not be viewed as providing a meaningful number of key pieces. Furthermore, the unexpected but clear meltdown of Guthrie, Huff, and Mora and the departure of Sherrill (I liked the idea of trading him, not sure we got the value back we needed) make the problem much worse.

To envision a contending team in 2010, I need to see quality players in all 8 positions, DH, and at least 3 of the starting pitching spots, and in a couple of reliable bullpen guys. Having glaring holes at 1B, 3B, and all pitching spots (even Bergy is not a 100% cinch to excel) leaves us with far too much to accomplish before April.

I just don't see us landing that many quality players from outside the organization in a single off-season. But, perhaps AM will surprise me and get very aggressive early.

TNW: (trolls note well) I still give AM a solid grade B+/A- for what he has accomplished so far. I just wish we had hit on a couple of the shots we took.

Chas,
you really think Huff is the only guy thinking that way or making plans? Have you been watching any games?

Sheets,
I thought that was well written & a thoughtful post. I agree with a lot of it. I was mildly surprised & impressed to see that from you.
I have to say though, I was not bashing Pie on everything, just the bonehead plays that looked like little league stuff. You have to admit, we were seeing stuff that just doesn't happen to MLers. It was almost daily in ST & carried over to the start of the season. Thankfully Reimold arrived & put an end to the comedy in LF. When Pie finally did something, I said well done. I also pointed out that was ONE game, the next night he was 0 for 3 & had a dubious OF play, again. What can you say? Yeah he has athletic ability but he doesn't seem to have baseball instincts IMHO.
That is not the big issue though. I have never been part of the crowd bashing AM here. I have given him the benefit of the doubt. I have known what I mentioned for about a year, but kept an open mind. It's legit info & from solid sources.
Just dumping Huff for virtually nothing is what finally pushed me over the edge. How many times are they going to do this? How much more are the O's going to look like the Pitt Pirates? Huff was a decent player & should have brought more than some A ball middle reliever. I agree he wasn't worth what he may have gotten in arb. Hopefully they could have worked out a better deal. I just think AM dumped him to save some $$ & because of his personal distaste for the guy. I don't see anyone that is a pending FA that is even close to as good as Huff either. I am fairly certain all that talk about signing him later is BS from what I have heard. That rankled me too. I hate spin & BS from the FO. If Huff is resigned, it will be because of potter or someone else pushing for it, not because AM wants him.

As for Weiters, he is going to be fine, this alarm over one bad AB is silly. Is anyone remembering that his former mentor (Zaun) was catching that AB & calling the pitches? Doesn't it seem plausible that maybe he knows what might be the right things to throw Weiters in that situation?

Read these thoughts on the current 'crisis', written by respected baseball man Thomas Paine:

THESE are the times that try [fan's] souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their [team]; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. [losing], like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as [a pennant] should not be highly rated.

Whether the [rebuilding effort] was declared too soon, or delayed too long, I will not now enter into as an argument; my own simple opinion is, that had it been eight [years] earlier, it would have been much better.

We did not make a proper use of last winter.. However, the fault, if it were one, was all our own [NOTE]; we have none to blame but ourselves...

-- Paine added these thoughts addressing trollism:

'Tis surprising to see how rapidly a panic will sometimes run through a [fan base]. All nations and ages have been subject to them...Yet panics, in some cases, have their uses; they produce as much good as hurt. Their duration is always short; the mind soon grows through them, and acquires a firmer habit than before. But their peculiar advantage is, that they are the touchstones of sincerity and hypocrisy, and bring things and men to light, which might otherwise have lain forever undiscovered. In fact, they have the same effect on secret traitors, which an imaginary apparition would have upon a private murderer. They sift out the hidden thoughts of man, and hold them up in public to the world. Many a disguised [O's hater] has lately shown his head...

Jack and Brummie, I'd like to thank you both for your multiple posts on my Web site. Each time you post, I get a little bit more money in my pocket. Keep it up! PS - I'm not firing Mr. McPhail, so you help me pay his salary each time you post. That means indirectly you are funding his green fees and sweatervests. He sends his thanks, and I repeat mine.

Kisses,
Ole Pete

how about nick needs to play for a non-last place team to get noticed. it is what it is. who cares if hes throwing out 15 guys at home a year if his team is always finishing with 60-70 wins? i don't care, i just want to see wins. i'd rather have him have a noodle arm and the o's win 100 games, obviously.

This Top 3 list, along with the All-Star Game is just a popularity contest. It's the same boring old players(Yes, you Ichiro, A-Rod, Texiera, and Jeter) everytime. There are many more players who deserve to be on that list. Markakis should defiently be on that list for Best Outfield Arm and Best Defensive Outfielder, espically Best Outfield Arm. Izturis should be on the list for Best Defensive SS. Also, Bergy should be on the list for Best Control, and If Sherril was still here, put him on the list for most exciting player and best reliever.

Unfortunately the Orioles really needed to sign Tex, and he had not interest in coming here. A young local kid on a long-term deal who is likely and annual MVP candidate would have really turned this franchise around.

It's quite simple, really. Nick doesn't necessarily have the best arm, he just has more opportunities to throw guys out on the bases because our pitching is horrible. When there are men base, rounding second and third in nearly every inning, and opposing hitters always hitting balls to deep right he's going to get a lot of chances to gun them down. That's gotta be the rationale for excluding him from the list...right?

Hey Roch,
Can you post the National League results of the survey? Is there anyone who the O's would be targeting in free agency on these? i.e. 1st or 3rd baseman.

Morning Roch,

Interesting post to read and loved all the info, but I agree with one of the earlier posts that it is like a popularity contest in high school. Nick getting shunned is simply ridiculous. He's got the best outfield arm in MLB. Period.

"ocj".....dynamite post. As a baseball gear-head loved the stats. Nice work and very interesting. Like you said small sample size but I would also chalk it up to a rookie learning the position at the major league level.

Roch, I do have a question as I often do....I have never been to the press box but I am assuming it does not have any A/C, correct? What do you do to stay cool? With the heat and humidity the last few days hope you are enjoying the A/C at home! Speaking of home, I may have missed it in one of the threads but how is the house hunt coming along?
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The press lounge has AC, so I'll sneak up there. Or go out in the hallway. House hunting has been painfully slow, but going back out tomorrow to look at a few places. Thanks for asking. - Roch

Fellow Classmates,

It is time for some unemotional and current perspective on Nick as a Gold Glove outfielder.

Defensively, 2009 has not been a good year for Nick. We have witnessed the Careless Nick who has misplayed too many ground balls, then there is the Limited Range Nick who should get to more fly balls, and the Cannon with GPS Positioning for an Arm Nick who produces so many "Defining Moments."

If you want to check out the fielding stats, go to FanGraphs at: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2009&month=0

Among the disheartening things you can learn about Nick in the field this year is that, even though he is tied for second in assists, his arm, in general, does not get high marks according to the fielding metrics used on FanGraphs.

I don't think so, Roch.

There's really no reason to complain about who was left off. The survey was of AL managers. This means that the 14 managers in the AL voted and those were the results.

Just like the college football polls and all-star voting in all sports, who really knows exactly who filled out the survey, or how seriously they took it? But you have to take their word for it. This isn't like fans out west not seeing Markakis frequently enough to know who he is. Every manager in the AL knows exactly who he is. There just happened to be more votes for other guys. It's not a lack of respect to be left off the list. It just means he didn't get enough votes to be in the top 3 out of 42+ AL OF's.

The managers see the players every day and are a much better judge of actual baseball ability than any of us, on skill alone. It's easy to crunch a few numbers and project a player. But it's another to know what his tools actually are. Just because a guy doesn't bunt once per game doesn't mean his bunt tool can't be the best in the league. And a manager has a much better chance of knowing that than any commenter.

Furthermore, just because Josh Hamilton hasn't played a lot of games this year, doesn't mean he can't win a category. He is still an active player and "tool" doesn't equate to "performance" or the number of games played. It's just a measurement of ability with no attention paid to performance. And just like Markakis, Hamilton threw mid-90s as an amateur. Plus, he was considered a possible #1 overall pick as a pitcher in '99, but was drafted #1 as a hitter. Markakis was never considered as a #1 pick for either, just for comparison's sake. Both of them would have been fine additions to the list.

And as good as Markakis is, he has thrown a few terrible balls when trying to go to the plate. They may not run on him all of the time because he has a strong arm and it's usually accurate. But that doesn't excuse overthrowing cutoff men or the catcher, or pulling the catcher 10 feet from the plate. As long as he keeps doing that, teams will challenge him from time to time. Of course, as long as they keep running, then he will keep racking up the assists.

In the end, OF assists just look pretty, but don't tell the full story. Go back and look at Manny's stats as an example of that. In 2005, he recorded 17 assists. Part of that was because the Green Monster gave runners fits and Manny learned to take advantage of it pretty well. And a lot of it was because teams ran on him. The sum of 17 doesn't mean jack. What would be more telling is the number of total chances for an OF assist in relation to the number of OF assists recorded. 17 out of 150 (and yes, I made that number up) isn't as impressive as, say, 4 out of 20. So, some context needs to be applied to OF assists or else it's meaningless.

Seeing Markakis play the OF every obviously adds some visual context to his defensive abilities, for sure, but it probably isn't enough for him jump over guys with more fanfare and longer tenures in the league. That's just the way it goes. For all we know, Markakis was 4th on the list. Let's not act like he was 40th.

Brummie spewed: "It sure seems like a lot of people are starting to turn against Andrew MACFAIL and his "plan". People are fed up with the BS, the ineffective stop-gaps and the notion that rookies alone can carry this team."

Yes, Brummie in your own little world it must seem like many people are turning against Andrew. However, there are far more people who read this blog every day who have been fed up with you for the entire season, but you won't go away.

The last time i checked Nick Markakis led outfield assists. Is that still true? How can an outfielder who leads in outfield assists not be the 1st of the top 3 "best outfield arm" let alone, not even on the list. Oh thats right ... he plays for the Orioles.

@orangecrayonjesus,
No disrespect, and I appreciate the fact that you put so much effort into your post - but there is significant data disproving the notion that catchers have any enduring effect on a pitcher's ERA. I would suggest reading "Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong". It has some hiccups, but by and large is a very enlightening book that highlights the numerous fallacies and wrong assumptions that have historically crippled "mainstream" baseball analysis (and still do).

All that said, I have no problem with putting a veteran catcher like Zaun behind the plate to help a rookie making his first start...I just don't think over time there will be much -- if any -- difference between him and Wieters or any other catcher (as far as pitcher ERA is concerned).

Orange Crayon Jesus,

Interesting post. I'd like to point out two things that came to mind while I was reading it.

1) Zaun caught Hernandez when he first came up and Weiters after he had been here a while. So what? The league didn't really know what to expect from DH initially and has since made adjustments. This should account for some part of the difference.

2) To make the stats more meaningful, you could factor in who the pitcher-catcher tandem was playing against. If by some quirk Wieters has caught Guthrie & Hernandez against better hitting teams like the Yankees and Red Sox and Zaun hasn't, that would affect the numbers.

If you conclude Wieters may have been rushed, I agree. I also think Matusz has been rushed.

Baldy

In response to the Tool Time thread, I would like to respond to all the tools who gave me a hard time for daring to say Wieters had no pop off his bat or bad footwork behind the plate. One of his own teammates said he hit soft! And I believe his footwork can be improved behind the plate, but it leaves alot to be desired. Maybe if some of you were able to really look at the game a little more deeply rather than say "Oh, I read somewhere that Wieters is great, therefore everything must be perfect about him," maybe you'd enjoy it a little more.

Lineup I'd like to see tonight:

Roberts
Jones
Markakis
Scott (DH)
Reimold
Wieters
Wiggington (3B)
Aubrey (1B)
Izturis

Roch - If Markakis was a Yankee or RedSox he would be on this list. If Michael Aubrey is such a good defencive 1st baseman, why is Luke Scott going to play most of the rest of the year at first? Shouldn't the coaching staff "know by now" what they have in Luke. Wouldn't this experament be best surved in spring training? Am I wrong?

Nick Markakis and Adam Jones should be in Best defensive outfielder , outfield arm. At least Nick Markakis.
NICK MARKAKIS IS THE UNKNOWN ALL-STAR. IF HE PLAYED FOR A WINNING TEAM HE WOULD BE AN ALL-STAR EVERY YEAR,GOLD GLOVE AWARD WINNER EVERY YEAR.
But im glad the Orioles have Nick Markakis the best RF. Nick Keep doing the good work.

First of all, that is Baseball America's opinion. Cano at 2nd? Roberts plays a pretty good 2nd. Markakis should definitely be in the top 3. If you noticed, most of these players are on teams either in 1st place or in contention. I am really surprised that all the players weren't either Yanks or Red Sox. Because, is there any other teams in the AL but those two teams? ESPN thinks not. Markakis and company will be noticed when the O's start to win. Not before...........

How is Markakis not in there for best defensive outfielder or best outfield arm? If he played for the Yankees he's be in several categories.

Since everyone here loves stats, here is another number that the MacFAIL regime does not like people to know about .

Last year's record against the AL East after 45 games 17-28

This year: 15-30

I know it's only two games, but still it's a sign that improvement is simply not happening. Two games here, two games there, it's all a sign of regression.

"We have to play better in our division. Last year's record was not acceptable."

I guess you FAILED again Andrew.

We def. have talent on the team everywhere or the guys just wouldn't be there, period but until we have a winning record, no one on the Orioles is going to get recognized for their talents. It's true but very sad and not the right way to think about the situation either. Yeah, people on the Orioles should be in those categories, we know it, but it's politics with the people that decide these things.

Ever go to a restaurant, and the menu is so extensive you have no idea what to order? You end up making some selection after picking half a dozen things you might like, at the end of the meal you think maybe you should have tried a different one, but in the end you had good food. This "tools" list has too many items for me to take the results all that strictly. It's also a lot like the Gold Glove voting, where managers make picks based on preconceived notions rather than performance (who could forget Raffy getting that GG in a year where he DH'd almost exclusively?).

This list is just an extension of why most baseball awards are completely flawed. The gold glove is mostly a popularity contest where it seems like the tie-breaker is which player is the better hitter. These lists are interesting to look at, but should be taken as a grain of salt. How many Yankees, Red Sox, and big names are on this list? They are the best teams--thats true, but they are not the class of every baseball category known to man. Being Oriole fans we see first hand how ridiculous the oversight of Nick Markakis is, but we all know that there are others that are overlooked on other teams. Just think, a couple of years ago Carl Crawford would be no where near this list. Yes, he is a better player now, but he has always been supremely talented.

T-MINUS 10 GAMES

UNTIL WE ARE OFFICIALLY ELIMINATED FROM ANY POSSIBLE CHANCE OF A .500 RECORD!

WOW AND IT ISN'T EVEN SEPTEMBER YET

ANDREW - I THINK WE ARE GOING TO FALL SHORT OF YOUR GOAL

YA................THINK!!!!

I agree that Markakis deserves to be a top defensive outfielder, but I think a lot of posters misread the categories - most of the categories are defensive so not sure where a player's offensive numbers or production comes into play. Mora striking out twice last night has nothing to do with how well he can make a defensive play at 3B.

Also, I would love to hear from posters who are screaming to bench Mora who you want to be the everyday 3B for the rest of the year? Wigginton, who's now at 1B? But do we know that Aubrey can play 1B everyday if Wigginton is moved to 3B (where clearly he can't be an everyday 3B)? Someone in the minors? but who specifically? I think Mora is our best option for the rest of the year.

Thanks, I do like stats! The comparison of this year's AL East record vs. last year's is a nice example of the binomial distribution and hypothesis testing. We'll assume for the moment that last year's record is the end-all, be-all marker of performance (i.e., that our 17-28 record and its .378 winning percentage is perfectly accurate and serves as the benchmark to compare this year). Given that, does a 15-30 record differ significantly in statistical terms? To assess this, we test the null hypothesis that our 2009 AL East performance is identical to our 2008 one. We'll come up with a significance figure at which we could reject that hypothesis, so a bigger number is stronger proof that the 2009 Orioles have regressed (that is, there's strong statistical evidence that this year's performance differs from last year's). I get a shade under 0.8, which says there's about a 1 in 5 chance our 2009 performance indicates a regression. If you want to argue that we were bad last year and we're bad again this year, that's pretty simple and borne out much more by the stats. But if you're going to take 15-30 vs. 17-28 as a clear sign of regression, that's no different than me pointing out we were 3-15 against the Rays last year but are 4-4 this year, so we're obviously a much better team.

Crap... I just cemented my place in the Rowdy Nerd Army.

While i acknowledge that Markakis is an incredibly solid fielder, he's not the best. Since he arrived, i tried to figure out his play because he didn't look particularly quick in the field and his throwing arm--while quite accurate--seemed to lack the velocity of others. I think his biggest asset is positioning and extreme accuracy. Leading the league in outfield assists rarely goes to the BEST outfielder. I mean, how many times did Albert Belle lead the league in assists? When you watch Jones square up on a ball and rifle it into the infield vs Markakis doing the same...the ball just looks different. It's hard to top Nick in accuracy though. He's very deceptive, how often will he make a throw though looks like it has no shot and somehow it arrives before the runner.

I think Markakis is an optical illusion. He may not even be real. who knows.

Roch,

I think Markakis doesn't make the list because I'd bet no one on here has played for a losing team for their entire MLB career. It's just like the MVP winner almost always plays for a winning team. This is a prime reason why I've never liked popularity contests. Give me the cold, hard facts--statistics. Heck....I keep wondering why the opponents continually test his arm!

Jim Carter

I agree Markakis should be recognized on here. He's prob the most underrated outfielders in the league.

Btw, how on earth can anyone say Thome has even average strike zone judgment?!?! He's 303 away from tying Reggie Jackson for the career strikeout mark. He gets his fair share of walks, but come on! Sheesh...

Binomial distributions? Hypothesis testing? I never figured I'd see that around this site. Excellent analysis, sheets!

If that puts you in the Rowdy Nerd Army, then I suppose this comment will do the same for me. But if you haven't noticed (which is quite possible if you spend all day with your nose buried in t-tables), being a nerd isn't so bad these days. After all, Shia LeBouef ended up with Megan Fox...and saved her from alien robots who wanted to destory humanity.

Nick Markakis has the best arm in baseball. Okay maybe Ichiro has a better one; MAYBE, but he definitely in the top 3, I mean c'mon Josh Hamilton.

And what about Robert's defensive play @ 2nd base??????? Cmon allstar Maybe Pedroia is better but Roberts no question is 2nd!

To the many disgruntled fans on this blog:

You are justified in being indubitably pessimistic and skeptical about Mr. Peter Angelos's (Andy McPhail's) Baltimore Orioles in their current capacity, as well as the projected long-term. I, for one miss, 1996. Even punk troglodites like Jeffrey Maier want their teams to win.

But no one was expecting this to be a good season. Yeah, 26 1/2 back is a bit ridiculous, even for a team of rookies. Let's remember Adam Jones last year, however. He looked like a rook, played like a rook, i.e., was a rook. Granted, he's starting to fizzle at the end stretch now, but let's take a look at what a difference a development year makes. The Orioles have several players, in the starting rotation mind you, that could make that kind of leap next year.

The losing teams are tiresome, but I'm granting the Orioles organization this year of grace, and I will focus on the kind of starts Tillman and Matusz have throwing to Weiters as opposed to the horrible record.

Those of you drinking the haterade are just fair weather fans. Please, let's try to act better than Pittsburgh.

Thanks for the coverage, Mr. Kubatko.

Most over rated player on the Hangout Board: Felix Pie,Felix Pie,Felix Pie

And Teenage Mutant Ninja Angelos:

Your name is awesome.