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'Explosion' of Swine Flu Cases Predicted

By GILLIAN WONG
,
AP
posted: 5 HOURS 51 MINUTES AGO
comments: 297
filed under: Health News, Swine Flu, World News
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BEIJING (Aug. 21) — The global spread of swine flu will endanger more lives as it speeds up in the coming months and governments must boost preparations for a swift response to a coming "explosion" of cases, the World Health Organization said Friday.
Many countries could see swine flu cases double every three to four days for several months until peak transmission is reached, once cold weather returns to the northern hemisphere, said WHO's Western Pacific director, Shin Young-soo.
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"At a certain point, there will seem to be an explosion in case numbers," Shin told a symposium of health officials and experts in Beijing. "It is certain there will be more cases and more deaths."
The WHO says the swine flu virus — also known as H1N1 — has killed almost 1,800 people worldwide, and has declared a pandemic.
International attention has focused on how the pandemic is progressing in southern hemisphere countries such as Australia where winter — and the flu season — has started.
But it is in developing countries that the accelerated spread of swine flu poses the greatest threat as it places underequipped and underfunded health systems under severe strain, Shin said.
WHO earlier estimated that as many as 2 billion people could become infected over the next two years — nearly one-third of the world's population.
Others said Shin's cautionary comments were needed but that they were optimistic the spread would not be that serious.
Ann Moen, an influenza expert with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that if current trends continue it is possible that the swine flu pandemic will not be worse than a severe flu season.
"I think the world was preparing for an H5N1 (bird flu) pandemic and we didn't get that. So maybe this is our supreme tabletop exercise, a global sort of practice for something bigger," Moen told The Associated Press.
Health officials and drug makers are considering how to speed up production of a vaccine before the northern hemisphere enters its flu season in coming months. Estimates for when a vaccine will be available range from September to December.
Delegates from Bangladesh and Myanmar appealed for help in procuring vaccines or making them more affordable for poorer countries, saying they were left vulnerable while rich nations pre-ordered most of the available stock.
"Developing countries like us, we have to fight this war without vaccines," said Mya Oo, deputy health minister of Myanmar. He urged pharmaceutical companies to consider selling the vaccines to developing countries at just above cost.
WHO's flu chief, Keiji Fukuda, said the agency was working hard on the issue, and noted that two drugmakers had pledged to donate 150 million doses of vaccine to poorer countries by the end of October. He said more research was needed to determine how vaccines will be priced.
"Among the many pandemic response issues, this is probably the most critical issue: how we mobilize the vaccines, how we get them to developing countries," Fukuda said.
WHO has stressed that most cases of swine flu are mild and require no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities, especially in poorer countries.
Shin said governments must quickly educate the public, prepare their health systems to care for severe cases and protect those deemed more vulnerable to prevent unnecessary deaths.
"We only have a short time period to reach the state of preparedness deemed necessary," Shin said. "Communities must be aware before a pandemic strikes as to what they can do to reduce the spread of the virus, and how to obtain early treatment of severe cases."
Pregnant women face a higher risk of complications, and the virus also has more severe effects on people with underlying medical conditions such as asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, autoimmune disorders and diabetes, WHO chief Margaret Chan said in a video address.
The last pandemic — the Hong Kong flu of 1968 — killed about 1 million people. Ordinary flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people each year.
Swine flu is also continuing to spread during summer in the northern hemisphere. Normally, flu viruses disappear with warm weather, but swine flu is proving to be resilient.
Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. Active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.
2009-08-21 09:03:50
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MrBradW61

03:19 PMAug 21 2009

Glers 03:13 PMAug 21 2009 SOCIALIZED MEDICINE VERSUS TRILLIONS IN PROFIT FOR INSURANCE COMPANIES I'LL TAKE SOCIALIZED MEDICINE ANY DAY SCUMBAGS ************************************************************************ **************** You take your socialized medicine and I'll keep my insurance. While you sit in agony waiting weeks for treatment, I'll get my treatment and be home watching TV in just a few days in no pain. And if you an older person, expect socialized medicine to take much longer to treat you in hopes you'll just croak. God some of you people are true idiots.

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(1)

BMelissa330

03:19 PMAug 21 2009

Millions will die from the swine Flu vaccination!!!!! People in Mexico were getting vaccinations last year and the outbreak happened from the vaccination. The vaccination are causing the deaths. I was told this from people in Mexico. So people watch!!!!

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SteRobe7

03:19 PMAug 21 2009

Your HEALTHCARE AND INSURANCE has already been provided to you by God.... So why do you need the GOVERNMENT charge you for it?

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Larryacetac

03:18 PMAug 21 2009

THE VACCINE HAS NOT BEEN TESTED, OBAMA GAVE THE MAKERS BLANKET IMMUNITY BECAUSE IT IS DANGEROUS BUT THEY WANTED TO SELL IT FOR PROFIT ANYWAY. IT CAUSES 2 MAJOR DISEASES THAT ARE LIFE LONG AND IT IS WELL KNOWN. JUST GOOGLE IT AND YOU WILL FIND OBAMA IS IN BED WITH THE MAKERS AND TRYING TO MAKE THEM SOME BIG BUCKS OFF THIS SCARE. THE VACCINE IS VERY UNSAFE, NOT FOR MY KIDS. BELIEVE ME, NO ONE IN WA DC IS GOING TO TAKE THIS FIRST AND IF THEY DO IT WILL BE A "SPECIAL VACCINE", NOT THE ONE WE WILL GET.

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RAcocella

03:17 PMAug 21 2009

jbmcjbm - Republicans and NeoCon's don't want Government involved in people's health care. Remember all those nuts running around that brain dead woman's nursing home a few yrs ago when her husband tried to do what her wishes were.....The republicans and the President were getting involved.....Very short memories don't we. ------------- I don't remember that.

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SteRobe7

03:17 PMAug 21 2009

"Fear Not But Fear it's Self"

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Catroina2

03:16 PMAug 21 2009

Glers 03:13 PMAug 21 2009 SOCIALIZED MEDICINE VERSUS TRILLIONS IN PROFIT FOR INSURANCE COMPANIES I'LL TAKE SOCIALIZED MEDICINE ANY DAY SCUMBAGS<<<<<<<<<<>.................... .......whoaaaaaaaaaaaaaa--so go to cuBa and tke your compUter with you. enjoy !

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Foxster5

03:15 PMAug 21 2009

This is all a scam!!!! There is NO SUCH THING AS SWINE FLU!!! It is bird flu. "H" is the Bird gene designation and "N" is the Human gene designation. IT IS BIRD FLU!! This is a scam by big pharma and the governments and powers that be to rape the public again and take MORE control of your lives. WAKE UPALREADY!!! How many times do you need to be hit in the head to know it hurts? Same difference. If you take Vitamin D and C and use Colloidal Silver you will be fine. The Elite have poiisoned the food chain so badly that everyones immune system is weak, Silver strengthens the immune system as does Vitamin D. What have I got to gain by telling you this? What do they have to gain by scaring you? Your money and your rights, that's what they will take.

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MrBradW61

03:15 PMAug 21 2009

Glers 03:12 PMAug 21 2009 EYECYNICAL 03:05 PMAug 21 2009 Folks may want to be alittle more concerned about the rise in TB, which has been linked to alot of illegals. It's my understanding that TB was nearly eradicated until the massive ongoing infux of illegals WHICH ILLEGALS, POLISH? RUSSIAN? ASIAN? INDIAN? PAKI? ARAB?SOMALIAN? AM I FORGETTING A GROUP? ************************************************************************ ********************* The filthy, non-vaccinated mexicans twit.

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SteRobe7

03:14 PMAug 21 2009

Jerseygirlbout 03:09 PMAug 21 2009 most men are swines anyways!******************************************** there is an old saying do not shit where you eat! The men you meet are a direct result of who you are attracted to PIG's

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The global spread of swine flu will endanger more lives as it speeds up in the coming months and governments must boost preparations for a swift response to a coming explosion of cases, the World Health Organization said Friday.
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