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Obama Approval Rating Dips in July

By Frank Newport, Gallup Poll

posted: 16 HOURS 50 MINUTES AGO

comments: 4530

filed under: Political News

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PRINCETON, N.J. (July 12) - President Barack Obama averaged a 58% job approval rating for the first eight days of July, down from an average of 61% for June, according to the Gallup Poll. His approval rating is down most significantly among independents, to 53% so far in July from an average of 59% in June; it has dropped two points among Republicans (from 25% in June to 23% so far in July) and has gone up a point among Democrats, to 90%.

Democrats have remained stalwart in their support for Obama all year, with this month's average rating of 90% roughly in line with where it has been all year.

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Among Republicans, Obama's standing has dropped from 40% in late January to 23% in early July, the biggest falloff among the three partisan groups across the first six months of the Obama administration. Independents' overall downward shift across the January to early July time period has been nine points, significantly less than the drop among Republicans, although, as noted, independents have dropped most in the July-to-June comparison.

In addition to monthly averages, Gallup reports Obama's job approval rating at Gallup.com each day, based on three-day rolling averages. Obama reached a new administration low of 56% for July 5-7; his approval average is one point higher at 57% for the latest three-day period, July 6-8.

Comparisons to Other First-Year Presidents

From a historical perspective, Obama's current July rating is not exceptional. It is roughly the same as the rating of George W. Bush in early July of his first year, although well above that of Bill Clinton in July 1993 (Clinton had by far the worst ratings in the summer of his first year of all presidents elected to their first terms since Eisenhower). Other presidents from 1952 on enjoyed higher ratings in July of their initial years in office than has been the case for the last three presidents, the one exception being Richard Nixon, whose 58% reading in mid-July 1969 is identical to where Obama is now. Thus, Obama's current approval rating is above-average only in comparison to Clinton at the same point in time. It is essentially on par with where Bush and Nixon were, but at least slightly worse than all other presidents (with the exception of Clinton). In particular, Presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy, and George H.W. Bush all had significantly higher ratings in the summer of their first year than does Obama at this point.

Looking Ahead

It is not unusual to find job approval ratings drifting downward as presidents' honeymoon periods begin to fade. The drop in Obama approval seen so far in July is to some degree expected. What happens from this point, however, on is highly unpredictable. Presidents like Reagan and Clinton did not begin to recover from first-year dropoffs in their ratings until well into their second, third, and fourth years -- just in time to ensure both presidents of solidly successful re-election bids. George H.W. Bush saw his job approval ratings shoot up at the beginning of his third year in office on the basis of the successful Persian Gulf War, only to fall precipitously thereafter, ultimately leading to his being voted out of office in the 1992 election. In similar fashion, Jimmy Carter's job approval ratings began to suffer in his second year in office. Although he enjoyed some upticks at various points thereafter, his overall averages remained low -- particularly in his final two years -- and Reagan defeated him decisively in the 1980 election. George W. Bush's job approval rating, as is well known, leaped to the highest level in Gallup Poll history after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and remained high enough in the remaining three years to help him successfully gain re-election in 2004.

Each recent American president has therefore generated a distinct trajectory of job approval through his first term. Thus, Obama's current status provides little clue as to where he might be over the remaining three and a half years of his first term in office. We do know, however, that Obama's current standing is at the lower end of the spectrum of presidents' job approval ratings in July of their first years in office, and on par with his immediate predecessor.

Survey Methods

Results for July are based on telephone interviews with 3,703 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted between July 1-3 and July 6-8, 2009, as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking. For results based on this total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Other monthly samples are based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 national adults each month, with a maximum margin of sampling error of ±1 percentage point.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2009-07-12 14:40:41

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yetegypttours

08:58 AMJul 13 2009

among other presidents Obama is not the worst www.youregypttours.comwww.fly2egy.comwww.sharmexcursion-tours.comwww.egy pttheotherholyland.comwww.yetegypttours.comwww.egypttravelgate.comwww.eg ypt-tourguide.com

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Darncomputers4

08:35 AMJul 13 2009

Signing Earmark Bills faster than Anyone could read them, more Powerful than any Dictator of any Nation, able to send AF1 on Picture Missions over NYC! ...Look, All Over The World! ...There He is! Shaking Hands with Every Dictator! It's Super-Obama! ...Yes, it's Super-Obama, a strange visitor from ...well... no one really knows for sure, who suddenly appeared out of the Senate with Powers and Abilities far above those of Mortal Men. Super-Obama, who can Kill Flys with a Single Hand, makes New Tax Laws with a Fast Stroke of His Pen, and who, disguised as a Chicago Acorn Worker, fights a Never-Ending Battle for More New Taxes, More Job Losses, and The National Healthcare Way.

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Sexywhiteboy53

08:34 AMJul 13 2009

DIP BABY DIP!!!!!!! WHAT A LOSER.

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REDnMORA

08:17 AMJul 13 2009

I THINK HE SHOULD BE IMPEACHED RIGHT NOW BEFORE HE CAN BRING THE COUNTRY DOWN EVEN MORE!!!!!!!! I FEEL HE WANTS TO MAKE OUR GREAT COUNTRY INTO SOMETHING LIKE THE FORMER SOVIET UNION WITH ALL HIS SO-CALLED HEALTH PLANS AND OTHER IDEAS. HE HAS NO BUSINESS BEING IN THE WHITE HOUSE AND NEITHER DOES BIDEN.

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AFormerDem

08:16 AMJul 13 2009

I voted for Obama and totally regret doing so.

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SkyD37

08:05 AMJul 13 2009

The stock market bounces up and down, but will never stabilize while the specter of SOCIALISM looms overhead! My wife and I sold all our stock the day the IDIOT (who has never owned any himself) was elected! By the way, it is interesting to see how the media ignores that fact that Iraq is slowly falling apart and violence is increasing. I have been observing administrations since LBJ was elected and Nixon was my commander in chief, but I have never seen as sorry an individual as this TRAITOR

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Park457799

08:02 AMJul 13 2009

Ha, Ha, Ha, hee, hee, hee! Who will the Obama Administration blame? Obama? This is so funny, I cannot stop laughing!

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SkyD37

07:36 AMJul 13 2009

For all of you leftists in the tank for Obama: We continue to ESCALATE in Afghanistan, with growing casualties. We still have well over 100,000 in Iraq, and continue to send Americans there (my neighbor is going in two weeks for the fourth time!). Yet you don't complain about your IDIOT, but screamed bloody murder over it when Bush was still in office. (it was bad then, it is still messed up) Now we could help neutralize Iran, but your quivering coward chooses to sit on the side lines! I guess he likes to decide which country Americans die in.

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JPWKAW

07:33 AMJul 13 2009

While the Media controled Talking Heads incessantly venerate Obama......The USA population must and will soon wake up from this Obama Socialist Night Mare......

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SkyD37

07:32 AMJul 13 2009

In a media driven society, have you ever seen so LITTLE debate and fact sharing relative to Obama's programs? We don't get anything on the pluses and minuses of these undertakings. That and the fact they must be passed NOW! It is obvious that Obama and his gang of thieves know that sooner or later the public will wise up to the lies and marketing that is being done here and being unknowingly forced on them. Imagine just for a moment that this idiocy was being forced through by President Bush and Republican Congress critters. All the media would be doing investigative pieces as to what those folks had to gain, and how they were connected to the "climate change" and alternative energy business. We would be seeing this on CNN 24/7. Anderson Cooper would be "outraged!" Yet with these folks of the far left pushing this, not a peep is raised as to how the money is connected, or who stands to gain financially!

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