Initial jobless claims drop, but continuing claims rise
Filed under: Economy
It was the lowest initial jobless claims total since January. However, the Labor Department cautioned that last week's initial jobless total was likely skewed lower, due to the short week which included the July 4 Independence Day holiday.
Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.
Putting the data in perspective
Michael Gregory, a senior economist for BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, underscored to investors that both jobless claim declines and job loss declines are not tantamount to job growth.
"Job losses lessening is a sign that the worst is over, but it doesn't mean the labor market will get better in a hurry," Gregory told Bloomberg News Thursday. "It's going to keep consumer spending depressed. People will be reinstating the term 'jobless recovery.'"
However, provided initial jobless claims keep declining in the weeks ahead, that would nevertheless represent the best news for the U.S economy since the recession started. True, as Gregory noted, it would not signal net job growth, but jobless claims declines point to a day when aggregate demand starts to rise -- a commercial condition the nation hasn't experienced in more than a year.
Also in the Labor Department's report, 21 states and territories reported an increase in new claims for the week ended June 27, while 32 reported a decrease. The data on states and territories are reported with a one-week lag.
Economic Analysis: A sharp decline in jobless claims: but again, one has to qualify that conclusion, due to the short week, which typically reduces jobless claims. Further, the continuing claims total remains at deeply problematic levels: near 7 million. Investors should take away from the new report that jobless claims have peaked, but the nation still hasn't identified or created engines of growth that will lead to the millions of new jobs that will be necessary to return to rising earnings, rising incomes, and expanding prosperity. Further, even assuming that there will eventually be a restructured U.S. economy that depends less on consumer spending, sustainable GDP growth can not occur without job growth -- which underscores the vitalness of the latter.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
7-09-2009 @ 10:57AM
DrDoom said...
The economy won't recover until oil-price is returned back down to $28 bbl where it belongs... Until then, the consumer and the world will continue to not have any confidence to travel and spend...
Excessively over-priced oil is the reason people worldwide aren't traveling, and when people aren't traveling, they too aren't spending... And top that, it was overpriced oil that got us into this ****-hole economy at the first place.
OPEC exports their oil at $5 to $6 per barrel to the U.S. and Wall Street and all these Crude trading posts all over the world manipulates it into the market at over $60... Now that's where everyone should shine their spotlights directly to!!! Cause they're the ROBBERS and CRIMINALS!!!
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7-09-2009 @ 11:15AM
Bigbizman said...
And all the while prices were going up and creating the biggest transfer of wealth, from oil consuming countries to terrorist supporting oil producers, Bush was kissng them and holding their hands.
7-09-2009 @ 1:50PM
jordan said...
I agree 100%
7-09-2009 @ 11:30AM
dan said...
Job losses are decreasing because there are less jobs to lose. This administration promised to SAVE or create 4 million jobs, and if you work for the government your job is safe and soon government employment will reach 4 million. State and city employees however will be screwed as deficits cause state government to cut employment and services but not wages for those left employed
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7-09-2009 @ 11:31AM
pete said...
The best thing that could be done for the US economy is to open off shore drilling. The Chinese made a deal to drill in Cuban waters - 90 miles off the US coast. BUT - the US EPA bans US companies from drilling within 200 miles off the coast. So it's ok for China to drill in our water, but not us. WTF is up with OUR government??????
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7-09-2009 @ 6:05PM
Bill said...
Whats comical is that a lot of folks, I guess not knowing the facts blame crude oil prices on Bush. But....Pelosi and the Dems have been blocking offshore drilling for gas and oil here in the US for 21/2 yrs. They have been in charge in Congress not Bush? Peolosi and here group have blocked any bill that comes up on off shore drilling. Lets focus the Blame (if we must) where it belongs , on Pelosi. 77% of americans want off shore exploration here in the US, so we can control the costs. Its to easy to blame Bush and his group...its a Dem cop-out and will continue as Obama bankrupts this country. What a scum she is and shes from California...must I say anymore?
7-09-2009 @ 11:37AM
Rick said...
America the beautiful is BROKE, but we do carry a big stick.
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7-09-2009 @ 11:37AM
athensbetty said...
thanks nafta and all who supported this program.We lost jobs.Greed took over and millions of dollars were stolen by greeded people.so now this is America
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7-09-2009 @ 12:01PM
ls4 said...
The economy is like buying a house in forclosure.. When you first it, youre excited, you made an inspection, you know it has a leaky roof.. 3 months after you move in..you realize a patch isnt going to work you need to replace the whoe thing..So you spend the money now knowing in the long run ut has its benefits,, Obama came into a mess with unseen problems and is making the best of it.. Cost more..yes but will it provide for a better tomorrow I think so..imagine the amount of people who would be out of work if it wasnt for the stimulus package
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7-09-2009 @ 12:36PM
art said...
Spending your way out of a recession is stupid, it never worked in the past and it will not work now. The only thing that worked in the last 30 years was to cut taxes for individuals, the little guy's. This gives them more money to spend which creates jobs.
We are losing our manufacturing base at a rate of 3% a year which makes up most of the middle class the drives the economy. Stop exporting the jobs, make it easier for small business to stay in business not tax them to a point of no return. There are more people working for the federal government then there are in manufacturing sector and thats just wrong.
7-09-2009 @ 12:44PM
Chuck said...
Sugar coat it all you want, this is now Obama's economy. He's not kept a single promise. Cap and Trade, new taxes on the middle class and homes still foreclosing at record rates. No Jobs growth, the Trillion dollar stimulus passed under Obama is going to the left wing special interests like ACORN, the greenies and Unions. Bills are being passed in the dead of night with no 5 day review and we're running up a deficit we'll never be able to recover from. Thousand of earmarks totalling 5 Trillion dollars are being attached to bills and passed. Obama promised to get rid of special interest in Gov't he also promised that "NO" lobbyists would be a part of his Administration. No promises kept, no hope, and no we won't in 2012.
7-09-2009 @ 12:07PM
Charles said...
The rules have changed. If you're looking for a great job, with a great company, with great benefits, that you will have your entire life, until you retire, stop looking. That was then this is now. That job doesn't exist anymore for 99% of us. Unless you have unique and remarkable skills you better figure out what will work best for you and your family. I am a former executive who left the corporate world to help people adjust to the new realities. My suggestion to most is to do what millions of people are doing now, find a good home business. That won't work for everyone but if you find one that you can get into for virtually no investment and learn the right skills, you should do well.
There are two opportunities that my clients have had the most success with. One is an amazing opportunity to profit from Ebay and there are well over 720,000 people making a full time living with them. http://cli.gs/HomeBizSuccessSystem That's a huge company to work with. The other great opportunity is working with an amazing program from Robert Allen http://bit.ly/RobertAllenIncomeStreams , a true genius, who shows you how to create multiple streams of income from home. The results have been spectacular
So many of my clients tell me that they are loving working for themselves, making more money than before, in less time, and enjoy the extra time they have to spend with their families.
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7-09-2009 @ 6:50PM
JP said...
Watch for the work at home scams on the net. They'll take your and you won't get any in return. Internet marketing is in a class all it's own. The people making the money are the ones that sucker in people to membership sites and work at home biz. If they worked so well, then why are they selling them?
7-09-2009 @ 12:17PM
Pat said...
Even in this economy there are still great jobs out there if you know where to look. I found one company that specializes in recruiting people who are looking for high paying work at home jobs with major US corporations. They sure hooked me up with a great job with FedEx. http://TheBestJobOfYourLife.com
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7-09-2009 @ 12:26PM
richard said...
We will see more job losses as the taxes that the Democratic led Congress is planning to impose upon the wealthiest earners in the nation. With less discretionary spending money, there will be less investments which provide research and expansion of companies in the future. It will have a long lasting impact upon the already sagging economy. Be careful what you wish for, it might come true in your worst nightmare.
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7-09-2009 @ 6:59PM
John said...
We're being set up for a new world order. The Gov. wants to distress this nation so they can declare martial law. That will give them control over everything. You can bet the U.N. is involved in this also. It seems that the Pope also wants a world order, "there is urgent need of a true world political authority". Obama seems to be way to relaxed. He sure doesn't seem to to concerned about us. All these trips to these world leaders, who knows what else they're talking about.Decreasing the population also comes with a NWO. Take a look at these videos.
http://New-World-Order.itrustgodonly.com -
http://death-camps.itrustgodonly.com/The-Obama-Deception/
7-09-2009 @ 12:33PM
Mike said...
How do the jobless people that dont get unemployment, or unemployment has run out get counted, in unemployement figures, or do they, so skip the BS and get the real stats, but it will be hard people living on the street dont have address or phone numbers
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7-09-2009 @ 6:37PM
JS said...
You are only considered unemployed if you are receiving unemployment. This is the criteria that allows for the lowest possible unemployment numbers. Remember the current admin controls the labor department, whoever is currently in office deems it best to have the lowest numbers possible, so it works for both parties.
If you actually try to figure out real numbers from the government you have to do a lot of research as they put out many “measures” of unemployment. The best number to use is called “U6”. While still understating the real number it is as close as you can get from government sources. It can track TWICE as high as the “normal” measure during the deepest recessions. In other words the current (aprox. 10% number) could actually be as high as 20% when uncounted unemployed, underemployed, marginally employed, illegals etc. are factored in.
7-09-2009 @ 12:37PM
Sarah said...
Every day on the news we hear about another corporation that has shut down a plant and is moving to India or China to make their product. We loose those jobs and the people are on unemployment. How can we spend money to keep the economy going without jobs? Can not we pass laws that if the government gives money to a company they can not use the money to move overseas. GM just moved a whole bunch of jobs to Brazil with out tax dollars, was not saving our jobs the reason for the Bail out?
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7-09-2009 @ 12:48PM
jessie said...
27-09-2009 @ 11:15AM
Bigbizman said...
And all the while prices were going up and creating the biggest transfer of wealth, from oil consuming countries to terrorist supporting oil producers, Bush was kissng them and holding their hands._______________does that mean that obama is kissing them and holding their hands now?
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