False information is part of every war, and Israel certainly does not refrain from employing it. When the war over Gaza started on the last Saturday of last year - one day before the cabinet was to meet to discuss the situation according to official communiqués - Israel gave the impression it was limiting itself to air strikes on military targets and the administrative infrastructure of Hamas. The intention was to stop Hamas from firing more rockets.
Within days it became clear that aim was being interpreted more flexibly. Educational institutes and a mosque were also attacked. Apparently, they were being used to hide combatants or weapon stores. The number of Palestinian civilian casualties continued to increase. Israel dealt with the situation by spreading pamphlets over Gaza from the air advising the population to move out of the buffer zone. But where should they go? The inhabitants of the sealed-off strip cannot go anywhere. And at the same time, the Hamas rockets ranged even further afield.
Urban warfare
Last Saturday, just as an European delegation was getting ready to start negotiations, the apparently limited operation turned into a real war. Or better, an urban war. Israel still claims that it is not aiming for 'regime change'. But according to the secret service Shin Bet, Hamas has been weakened so much that it is more willing to agree to a truce on Israeli terms.
For the moment, there are no indications of this. In an urban conflict, the battle is conducted house by house. There are no front lines where tanks can be effective. In this type of warfare, the ‘third intifada’, as called for by Hamas last week, becomes a bloody reality. The basis for this has not been bombed out of existence over the past nine days. It is not surprising that the Islamic movement won a large majority of the Palestinian votes in Gaza during the first democratic elections in January 2006.
There does not seem to be an end in sight. No experienced authority in the West is willing to convince Israel to change to a diplomatic approach. America supports the war, certainly while Obama is not yet in the White House. France has lost its leadership of Europe since the beginning of the year. Every country in the EU is busy with establishing its own political priorities.
Free hand
Thus, Israel believes that it has a free hand. In terms of power politics, that is a correct assessment. But starting a ground offensive in Gaza means that Israel has overstepped a new and dangerous limit. The violence is now out of proportion. Over one million hostaged Palestinians are the first victims. An unknown number of Israeli soldiers will soon follow.
The war does not offer any perspective for a solution. Even the apparently clandestine idea that president Abbas and his corrupt Fatah party will simply take over the positions of Hamas in Gaza is naive at best.
The situation threatens to turn into a hopeless quagmire. Israel can limit the damage, to its own image as a democratic state as well, by responding to the appeal from the UN and the EU to institute a ceasefire. But the chance of that happening is unfortunately small.