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Is Japan undergoing a downhill slide like ancient Rome?

Invisible wild waves appear to be hitting Japan. An economic tsunami emanating from the United States is making the furious inland sea even rougher. As 2008 nears an end, one cannot help but wonder whether Japan can ride out the rough waves that hit the country one after another.

The financial crisis that started in the United States has struck Japan, and is complicating the already serious economic situation here. Numerous people are obviously feeling uneasy as if they were aboard a ship in rough seas and hear the vessel creaking.

The Nobel prizes awarded to four Japanese researchers was encouraging news, but some people point out that they were awarded for their past research achievements and that it is highly doubtful if more Japanese scientists will win Nobel prizes in the future. The four laureates' feats highlight the dismal situation in Japan's academic circles.

Japan's system as a state is showing signs of cracks. Replacing parts and fresh paint is not enough. We must consider a drastic overhaul of the entire ship and replacing its skipper.

In September, then Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda suddenly stepped down, and the approval rating for his successor, Taro Aso, remains low. The dismissal of administrations by Fukuda and his predecessor Shinzo Abe has heightened the public's distrust in politics, particularly the ruling coalition.

Moreover, Aso, who was expected to dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap general election shortly after taking office, has been unable to do so because the ruling coalition remains unpopular. He is barely staying afloat, like a boat without a rudder, hoping to increase his popularity by implementing economic stimulus measures.

What has gone wrong with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)? Novelist Nanami Shiono has pointed out that Japan, in which the LDP picks the nation's prime minister, is similar to ancient Rome, in which its consul was named by the Roman Senate. Such a system in which a small number of people are involved in the leadership functions may work if a country is growing, but if the environment changes, its mechanism of utilizing human resources goes out of order. Shiono's comment in her book, "Roma kara Nihon ga Mieru" ("Japan viewed from Rome") that "even though the leader believes he is doing well, he is only impeding governance" is noteworthy. Is Japan undergoing a downhill slide like ancient Rome?

The scandal-tainted Social Insurance Agency has come under fire for falsifying numerous pension premium payment records as an entity, and the corrosion of Japan's function as a state is unbearable to watch.

The new medical system has also angered people. Senior citizens' protest at the phrase, "late-stage elderly people," is their quiet uprising, so to speak.

A "grass-root uprising" also occurred in the labor field. The number of temporary workers dispatched by employment agencies to various firms hit a record high this year. In the face of the economic downturn, many employers unilaterally terminated their employment contracts with such workers or cancelled their job offers to those who are expected to graduate this coming spring. Strikes staged by temporary workers and others who are trapped in an insecure employment situation are a major expression of resistance in Japan, where labor movements are not generally active.

Problems involving the employment and social security situations have become serious as the social divide into "winners" and "losers" is expanding. This year saw a spate of heinous crimes, such as a stabbing rampage in Tokyo's Akihabara district that left seven people dead and 10 others injured and attacks on the homes of two retired top bureaucrats in the Health and Welfare Ministry.

Japan's national security system also appears to have become fragile. Air Self-Defense Force Chief of Staff Toshio Tamogami was forced to step down after he released a controversial essay that denied Japan was an aggressor in World War II, raising serious questions about Japan's civilian control on the Self-Defense Forces (SDF). Even if he exercised the freedom of expression guaranteed by the Constitution, his freedom of thought and his responsibility relating his official duties are completely different matters, as National Defense Academy President Makoto Iokibe points out. Japan is in a bind as a top-ranking uniformed SDF officer, who is in a position to control SDF personnel and equipment, publicly disagrees with the government's official position.

Japan's actual security situation has also worsened. Even though the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush cannot solve problems involving North Korea's nuclear program, it removed Pyongyang from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. Nuclear weapons and missiles that pose a direct threat to Japan remain intact, and there has been no progress on the issue of abduction of Japanese nationals by North Korean agents. Many Japanese people do not appear fully aware of the danger.

There have not been in-depth discussions on Japan's role in conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Japan has not adopted a specific response to the Palestinian issue, where bloodshed continues. Even though Japan was busy responding to numerous domestic issues, Japan apparently stuck to its inward-looking stance and refused to look at what it didn't want to see.

While China increased its presence by hosting the Beijing Olympics, Japan's global presence is becoming less visible. Japan-U.S. relations continued without any major conspicuous events. Nowadays, phrases like, "Japan nothing" and "Japan missing" are frequently heard in the United States and other countries. Japan seldom mentions the phrase, "the Japan-U.S. alliance in the world," which was frequently heard during the administration of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

Japanese officials are apparently preferring to hold dialogue with President-elect Barack Obama rather than unpopular and outgoing President Bush. Arthur Meier Schlesinger Jr., who served as an aide to the late President John F. Kennedy, said the United States has never been more unpopular, distrusted, feared and hated than under the Bush administration.

However, we must bear in mind that Japan is one of the countries that promptly expressed support for the U.S. war against Iraq. If Japan fails to evaluate its relations with the Bush administration, which is now nearing an end, it should be called a moral hazard as a state.

(Mainichi Japan) December 31, 2008

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