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How to Solve the Housing Crisis: Let in More Immigrants to Buy Houses

Posted Dec 19, 2008 02:33pm EST by Aaron Task

In order to prevent another disastrous wave of foreclosures and stem the decline in home prices, America should allow in more immigrants and give them incentives to buy homes, says Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.

A smaller version of this plan was successful in Canada and Shilling notes it could be combined with an expansion of the H1-B visas that Silicon Valley says are in such short supply.

If "letting in more immigrants to buy houses" sounds like a drastic step, that's because drastic action is needed.

Because there's too much inventory of unsold homes and not enough qualified buyers to soak it up, lower mortgage rates won't save the housing market, Shilling says. That's especially true with unemployment rising and a "deflation mindset" among potential buyers (i.e., the longer you wait, the lower prices will go).

A noted and notable bear, Shilling predicts the following will occur unless drastic action is taken:

  • Average U.S. home prices will fall another 20% from current levels, bringing the peak-to-trough decline to 37%.
  • If prices ultimately do fall 37%, 25 million Americans — or about 50% of all U.S. homeowners with a mortgage — will be underwater, meaning their house will be worth less than their mortgage.
  • Millions of Americans won't be able to make mortgage payments, even if they're able to refi at today's low rates.
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404 Comments

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 02:45PM EST

Houses are still too expensive. Upside downers will walk away. Laid offs will walk away too.

pqbooicu
pqbooicu - Friday December 19, 2008 02:45PM EST

Egotist... Gary Schilling of A. Gary Schilling & Co, a subsidiary of A. Gary Schilling, LP, a division of A. Gary Schilling, Worldwide...Ad nauseum. Okay, you got one right. The one monkey of thousands typing away at thousands of typewriters that actually typed an intelligible word. Go back to typing...

Siciliano
Siciliano - Friday December 19, 2008 02:50PM EST

Why not helping first the legals immigrants who are already in the us???

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 02:50PM EST

Why is increasing the odds of my unemployment as a Software Engineer seen as "helping" the economy?

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 02:50PM EST

I have no interest in anything that drives housing prices up. I worked like a dog, I paid off my student loans, I paid off every credit card, I did not buy gadgets, TV's or Gas Hogs. I SAVED my money. And now I will buy an affordable house that I can actually afford.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 02:50PM EST

And where are the jobs for these new wave of immigrants that would provide them enough wages for them to buy a home? I doubt if Silicon valley is still having a scarcity of people to fill its tech jobs. That info on H1B scarcity is outdated, going by number of such "consultants" in bench.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 02:52PM EST

We should just give them a house! What an idiot I am, working and all. I should move to Mexico and become a citizen. Then I can move back and get some special incentive to buy a home. Why would an illegal be able to afford a house more than a citizen of the US? We are all doomed with morons like this running the show.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 02:53PM EST

What the expert ignores is that increasing the H-1 B cap will let more foreigners in and may help the housing market but what will happen to the employment? As it is the industry is laying off and with more cheap labor, more layoffs will cause more people to default on thier mortgages and greater number of houses will foreclose. A true and honest assessment of demand and supply is necessary and if that says the housing is overbullt, a true solution is needed to fix it.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 02:53PM EST

Why is increasing the odds of my unemployment as a Software Engineer seen as "helping" the economy?

you
istartedi - Friday December 19, 2008 02:54PM EST

Silicon Valley does not need more H1-Bs. Tech companies are laying people off. Housing in Silicon Valley hasn't dropped like it has in Contra Costa. If housing prices in Si Valley fall it'd be a relief, not a problem.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 02:54PM EST

Dumb idea. Increased immigration is a government-type solution that will encourage more misallocated resources and another correction sometime in the future.

you
Janet C - Friday December 19, 2008 02:55PM EST

Letting more skilled, educated immigrants into our country just to buy up foreclosed homes is crazy. A lot of hardworking, taxpaying Americans have paid a lot of money for their kids to be educated here and it will be harder for those kids to find jobs when they are up against immigrants willing to work for less. Just doze the damn houses down.

Sanju
Sanju - Friday December 19, 2008 02:58PM EST

Targeting H1b visa category people for selling Houses is really really slim to nothing success. The reason is immigration rules. Go figure, how many H1B people are willing to buy houses with their uncertain visa status. If they loose job , the need to step out of the country right away ( loose house ) or find another job.

mulanijem
mulanijem - Friday December 19, 2008 02:58PM EST

This jerkoff is clearly clueless about what is going on, and lives in an ivory tower. Why do they have a constant stream of these bafoons being interviewed, the crap that the MSM is puting out these days is getting more and more ubsurd by the day. There are no jobs for poeple already in this country, letting in more slave labor in the form of H1b's is not going to help anything...

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 02:59PM EST

No one has every accused an economist as being practical............

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 03:00PM EST

this is just the kind of moronic idea one can expect from bank executive!! you see Mr. Shithead, the only housing problem in America is that prices bubbled way above what average folks could afford. you are probably one of the morons who thought giving people without income or savings a $500K home loan to buy a McMansion was a good idea. can you spell Idiot, Moron, Inept, Stupid as dung ... no, but i bet it starts with Sch....!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 03:00PM EST

Get the Senators who are sitting on their ass doing nothing to go to their constituencies and come up with a realistic list of all those homes that are undervalued, and come up with a plan to put a realistic value before we do any thing drastic and begin big give away. I feel that the numbers we are hearing in trillions etc are blown out of proportion, and there is probably another big wall street scammer at work. Here is my quick and wild guess. Based on the US population of 300 mil, if there are 150 million home owners (not apt. dwellers), at 10% of the home owners in foreclosure, there are15 million homes on foreclosure. If the estimated loss is 1 trillion, that translates to approximately $66,600 in loss per home foreclosed. I don't believe it. Some body is blowing it out of proportion and getting rich.

you
dano - Friday December 19, 2008 03:00PM EST

Think about what you said about letting immigrants into the USA, Mr. Shilling. If a few immigrants is so good, how about just opening our borders so anyone can come in and stay here? If this occurs, I will promise you that everyone's standard of living will decline, not improve. If we deported all of the illegal aliens who are here, our standard of living would improve. Short term there would be pain as the economy and infrastructure would adjust to this, but long term there would be major improvement. I see it as just more people splitting up the same amount of resources if we let illegals stay. Imagine if the world population was double what it is now if population growth is so great. Would the average person be better or worse off? What would we be saying about depletion of natural resources then? Would there be more or fewer wars over resources? More people = more problems.

pqbooicu
pqbooicu - Friday December 19, 2008 03:01PM EST

A. Gary Schilling is just interested in A. Gary Schilling. What does a Ponzi scheme need to survive? NEW MONEY ! Voila!

you
Whit Chambers - Friday December 19, 2008 03:01PM EST

The government has to keep their claws out of the business of those who bought at a bad time and could not afford what they bought. Let it drop.

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