Inside the Ring

Friday, August 17, 2007

"Our inability to observe Peace Mission 2007 is a missed opportunity," Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said. "Moreover, it underscores that there is a long way to go in terms of China's willingness to afford the United States access, transparency and reciprocity in the same manner and spirit we have demonstrated, for example, with our opening of Valiant Shield to PRC observers in 2006."

Chinese military personnel were given unprecedented access to U.S. military forces during the major naval exercise last year.

Mr. Whitman noted that despite the recent snub, "we have seen incremental improvement in PRC transparency in military and security affairs."

Richard Fisher, a specialist with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said it was a mistake to give the Chinese access to Valiant Shield because Beijing will use the intelligence gained in any future combat, and because there was no reciprocity.

"The [People's Liberation Army] does not reciprocate by allowing us to observe Peace Mission because they view us a potential combatant, and do not want to give away any insights about them," Mr. Fisher said, noting the snub argues for demanding "strict reciprocity" in all military exchanges with China.

"The operating assumption here is if we make nice with the nasty guard dog, the master will like us more," he said. "China's communist leadership is and will be forever hostile to democracies, and will never allow its PLA to be nice to any enemy."

DNI on China

Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell weighed in on the debate over the threat from a rising China this week and appears to favor the soft-line approach favored by Tom Fingar, the deputy director for analysis.

Mr. McConnell said there are multiple schools of thought on China that "tend to take on a political flavor."

"There are some who want to paint China as the next Soviet Union or Russia, and there are some that want to embrace China as a market, not only a provider of goods and services to us but that raise our standard of living by reducing cost to us, but provide a huge market for the United States," he said.

Mr. McConnell said his view tends toward the economic side, noting that China will be the "No. 1" largest economy in the next 20 years.

China's major problem, he said, is "internal stability," something most communist regimes have not had much trouble handling, whether through secret police or as in China's case, the bloody 1989 crackdown by military forces on unarmed protesters in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.

As for China's rapid military buildup of long-range missiles, submarines and space weapons, "I would characterize it, for the most part, while it has offensive capabilities, for the most part right now, it is defensive, and their principle focus is on Taiwan, bringing Taiwan into China, and the ability to have access to natural resources."

China is building deep-sea naval forces that appear designed to acquire energy resources, he said.

"So it's something we'll watch very closely," Mr. McConnell said, noting that "China will be probably the most important nation to the United States" in the coming years.

• Bill Gertz covers the Pentagon. He can be reached at 202/636-3274 or at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.

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