•
•

REUTERS/IPSOS: Trump leads in Colorado and Nevada, tied in WisconsinHIGH ENERGY (politicalref.com)

PoliticalRef が 投稿 - announcement

全 97 件のコメント
並べ替え:
ベスト
トップ新着論争中古い順Q&A

[–]sven855CHE 68ポイント69ポイント  (17子コメント)

Did they sample 45% democrats again like they did in their national poll?

[–]QuetzalcoatlJesusUT 32ポイント33ポイント  (10子コメント)

Don't you know? More people are registered as democrats than independents

[–]SoupIsNotAMealUSA 22ポイント23ポイント  (5子コメント)

Living or dead?

[–]OHTHNAP 15ポイント16ポイント  (4子コメント)

You know, this is a valid concern of the Clinton campaign. How do you make her few public appearances appear to be filled with people when most of your voters are dead? Can you imagine the hassle of digging them up and propping them in chairs?

[–]eastorosCA[🍰] 5ポイント6ポイント  (1子コメント)

No kidding, think about how much work they go through just propping her up through her "rallies." Another few hundred corpses would be a logistical nightmare.

[–]AppleTheRedMA 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

I dont think you understand: there are so few of her rallies specifically because the living are not allowed to the undead seances.

She's not in the mortal world as often because she's holding rallies for untold legions of the damned almost daily in her mausoleum.

[–]LOLZebraCT 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Well it makes sense that dead people support her, shes almost dead herself.

[–]Scian1985 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Clinton appeals to the living dead demographic. Who would have guessed.

[–]Ddog312 6ポイント7ポイント  (3子コメント)

Only like 3% more and more people lean Republican then Democrat when you include Independents

[–]WhiteLycanPA 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

Not according to gallup polls

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

[–]Ddog312 7ポイント8ポイント  (1子コメント)

Oh god that weekly Poll that sometime changes from Week to week by like 10-20 percent? Do you really think millions of Americans are changing their political affiliation from week to week like that poll suggests? Here is a much more comprehensive poll also done by Gallup that is more accurate. Also there are way more Conservatives then Liberals in this country

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx

[–]Block_Helen 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

It's not about the breakdown in party ID registration. It's about the breakdown in the party ID in the electorate - the people who actually vote.

In 2008 the electorate was +6D. In 2012 it was +4D.

Does anyone seriously think that Hillary is going to attract a higher percentage of Dem voters than Obama?

That's what the pollsters are freaking out about. They have no idea who is actually going to show up this year. They're using old data to weight their results. But nobody really knows.

[–]ThunderPoke91OK 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

I am eager to see the sampling as well. Depending on how over sampled the democrats are he may be up even more than is reported here.

[–]RoboHillary9000CO 22ポイント23ポイント  (4子コメント)

CTR here, that's still less than half. Drumpf BTFO

[–]sven855CHE 8ポイント9ポイント  (2子コメント)

Hello, CTR! How long does it take you to type with those massively fat hands? Or has CTR implemented voice to text for you all?!

[–]RoboHillary9000CO 15ポイント16ポイント  (0子コメント)

The diabetes have taken my hands. Thankfully we're so progressive here that I've gotten speech to Texas technology, but deleting typos is pretty hard.

[–]Brobi_WanKenobiSC 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Voice to text fam, can't be bothered to bend all the way to the keyboard

[–]SoupIsNotAMealUSA 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Politifact rates this as True.

[–]TrashCarryPlayer 53ポイント54ポイント  (11子コメント)

So that outlier that put Clinton 11% ahead in Colorado.... wtf is that.

[–]bbedwardOH 30ポイント31ポイント  (0子コメント)

You answered your own question

[–]aznhomigKOR 26ポイント27ポイント  (5子コメント)

A poll designed specifically to affect the RCP average in favor of Clinton.

[–]TrashCarryPlayer 16ポイント17ポイント  (4子コメント)

Jumping 11% in a poll only happens if something major happens, something even worse than being thrown into a van like a piece of meat.

[–]Thats-right-JayJPN 7ポイント8ポイント  (2子コメント)

Well, Trump did say something mean 20 years ago so that explains it all

[–]TrashCarryPlayer 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

It's statistically impossible because there's not enough swing voters left at this stage, everyone is dug in. 95% of voters have already made up their mind.

[–]Thats-right-JayJPN 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

everyone is dug in.

Funny you should say that, because those 11% of new Clinton voters have indeed been dug in 6 feet under the earth for several years.

[–]iltdiTXMI 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

LIKE A SIDE OF BEEF

[–]sven855CHE 13ポイント14ポイント  (2子コメント)

Maybe a poll conducted exclusively in Boulder and inner Denver?

[–]IncognitoCheetosCA 11ポイント12ポイント  (1子コメント)

On a university campus.

[–]RefrigeratorkebobUSA 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

In the nonbinary genderkin bathroom

[–]jappleseed12CT 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

It was probably the deceased vote.

[–]NoBreaksTrumpTrain 75ポイント76ポイント  (4子コメント)

Now that's good news.

Well folks, it looks like this is taken from a calculation of the entire month of September and has questionable value in the present.

[–]PoliticalRef[S] 23ポイント24ポイント  (3子コメント)

Taking a longer sample in terms of duration can give you a more accurate picture unless a single event dramatically changes the race all at once. Trump's debate performance negatives are probably temporary, in fact Pence probably reversed much of that last night. So taking a longer sample will give you a better result in this case.

[–]NoBreaksTrumpTrain 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

I tend to agree with your assessment with an opinion poll over a long term providing a more realistic sample, but with a hard cut a month away, spikes matter because if I can spike the right way at the right time before the cut off then I win.

[–]PoliticalRef[S] 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

They no doubt matter, but they have to last unless it's right before election day to matter. I think we agree, basically.

[–]Thats-right-JayJPN 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Still, just a minor swing in the wrong direction in CO could cost us the election.

It's a really tight race, and polls that include the aftermath of Clinton's 9/11 collapse are muddying the waters. The only thing that matters is how things are looking today.

[–]I_always_drop_ammoMI 28ポイント29ポイント  (7子コメント)

Rare energy from a VP debate! Repeat it with me folks, YOU CAN'T FENCE THE PENCE.

[–]IsometricRobotARMY 15ポイント16ポイント  (0子コメント)

Still too soon for the VP debate bump to affect the polls.

[–]ThatSteveGuy33CT 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

UNFENCEABLE

[–]hennnyENG 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

CAN'T OUTFLANKA THE IVANKA.

[–]Thats-right-JayJPN 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

That's absolutely terrible.

 

 

 

I like it 👌🐸

[–]Usecod 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

You cant BARAGE THE FARAGE.

[–]war_glaivez 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

REPENCE! THE DON IS NIGH!

[–]LOLZebraCT 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

HILLARY AND KAINE IS MORE OF THE SAME

[–]Atlfalcons284 21ポイント22ポイント  (12子コメント)

I dont know what fucking polls to trust. Different person winning all the time

[–]Drekken- 15ポイント16ポイント  (4子コメント)

The polls showing Hillary winning are there to offset emotions when rampant voter fraud wins her the election. Trump will win legitimately but voter fraud is a huge concern.

[–]ButteredPastryTX 5ポイント6ポイント  (2子コメント)

Volunteer to be a poll watcher, make sure no one is doing anything fucky.

[–]Drekken- 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

If I didn't have to work all day I would. I live in a small county that will 100% be Trump land. You can't vote without ID over here. I have no idea where you can waltz in and vote without identification.

[–]Muharuha 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

That's why the election day should be a free from work day

[–]Adam_MarxCAN 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Projection levels will be off the charts in November. When Trump wins, they'll point to the polls and claim fraud and try to void the election.

[–]alphacentipedeUSA 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

this. with the over/undersampling, 20elebenty-something bs polls coming out every other day, bias here, bias there, what the everloving cuck is to be trusted with any of this shittake.

[–]theallnightchemistPA 0ポイント1ポイント  (4子コメント)

One poll I saw had Clinton +11 in CO.

[–]6102pmurTUSA 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

One of the worst outliers of this entire election. Seems to have been made just to give Clinton a boost in the aggregate ratings.

[–]harambeforgives 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

None of these states are going to be +11 for either candidate. Every swing state will very likely be with 4-5 points. Only the usual suspects like NY, California, Mississippi or Texas will go big.

[–]Warbird36 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Whose poll was that? Monmouth?

[–]enjoycapitalismTX 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Your experience is good for trump.

[–]notatallimsureTN 13ポイント14ポイント  (0子コメント)

NEW BATTLEGROUND STATES, TRUMP IS BECOMING TOO POWERFUL

[–]stonetears4fears1984 13ポイント14ポイント  (0子コメント)

CTR shill here, did we properly account the margin of error because it's ±/- 1,000 and Hillary is ahead in Jupiter and Maine¯(°_o)/¯

[–]JackballJonez 9ポイント10ポイント  (8子コメント)

Whoa now this is big. How relevant is this poll and is the sample size lopsided?

This is a game changer. WI gives him more than enough

[–]peckx063 11ポイント12ポイント  (7子コメント)

Wisconsin resident here, I'm very hesitant to think Trump is going to pull it out here. Both candidates lost easily in their primaries. This would suggest neither will generate high turnout - there's just less avid Trump or Clinton supporters in this state than in others. So what will drive turnout in Wisconsin? The senate race. Russ Feingold is back and Wisconsin loves Russ Feingold. People will go vote so they can vote for Russ. And he's more sure to draw Clinton votes than Trump ones. The one thing working in Trump's favor is that Feingold is so far ahead, some Feingold voters may stay home.

[–]JackballJonez 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Thank you for that great WI summary!

[–]Youareabadperson6 0ポイント1ポイント  (3子コメント)

So you are telling me we are going to lose and Senate seat?

[–]theGoddamnAlgorath 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah, don't expect a landslide in Wisconsin.

[–]peckx063 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yes. And dems have a good chance to control the Senate. There are only 9 Democrat incumbents and they are all polling at least at +10 except for Nevada, which is very close. Meanwhile there are 24 Republican incumbents. 3 of those are led by the Democrat challenger by more than 5 points (including WI). Another 2 are slightly ahead (within 2 pts) to the Dems. Another 3 are within 2 pts to the Republican.

Dems are locked into 45 seats, and should gain 3 putting them at 48. If they win any 2 of the 6 statistical toss-ups they'll deadlock it at 50 and if they halve the toss-ups they'll have it.

[–]SkittyRoyaleMAGA 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I live in Southeastern Wisconsin, all Trump signs and "We back the badge" signs. I've seen one Hillary sign. I'm just concerned about the Milwaukee city vote, he has the suburbs on lock.

[–]WTCMolybdenum4753COAL 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

TrumpTastic!

[–]brikkwall 7ポイント8ポイント  (1子コメント)

If they are doing a poll average and Trump is almost tied, you know the lead is there behind the numbers. LANDSLIDE, I say.

[–]MisterMagoriumOH 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Outstanding.

If results hold up, we are poised for a landslide.

I'm curious to see what polls are like in Michigan, New Jersey and the Pacific Northwest states, since those are in play as well.

[–]FinalCaveatME 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

Not only tied in Wisconsin, but they're also tied in Michigan at 39% each!

https://i.sli.mg/uE7qeH.jpg

[–]ulmon 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

I can't hold all these paths

[–]TouchedmokeyTX 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm of the mind that we should ignore all polls, positive negative and indifferent. I don't need Reuters to tell me Trump is winning, I can see that for myself.

This is a demographically polarizing election and anyone who wants to use a poll to push an agenda just has to oversample a few categories by a few points to generate whatever skew they want.

Hyping "positive" polls and deriding "negative" ones only allows the media to control the narrative using manufactured popular opinion

[–]Proud_Deplorable 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

I just saw a poll on fox this morning and it has HILLIARY winning Colorado?? Why are these polls always different ?

[–]bannanaflameRUS 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

They're starting with 2012 turnout and trying to adjust to account for never Hillary voters, never Trump voter, never either non voters, and first time ever /first in a long time voters.

Usually I want to mostly trust the polls because pollsters need to be close to correct to be taken seriously, but I don't trust them at all this year. It's pretty much impossible to predict turnout and the fraud angle combined with media-establishment collusion creates too many variables.

Two most likely outcomes in my opinion.

  1. Trump landslide

  2. Hillary win and Trump raises hell about fraud, possibly overturning the results.

[–]PurplePlacebo 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Manipulation; can't trust Fox indiscriminately. It's been painful to watch their slow shift to the left. They still have a lot of pro Trump shows and personalities though.

[–]dogbookend 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Whew lads

[–]SonofSaxon79NC 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

And this article did not even mention Pennsylvania, where even a recent CNN poll showed the race TIED! http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/26/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-colorado-pennsylvania-polls/index.html All real metrics from Pennsylvania (rallies, etc) show that Trump should win Pennsylvania, unless there is massive vote rigging via the machines.

I still say that the overwhelming majority of people believe that Trump won the first debate, even though it wasn't Trump's best performance. The supposed post-debate "bounce for Clinton" is 100% a Leftist media fabrication, and they are now rigging their polls by vastly oversampling Democrats to give the ILLUSION that Clinton got a "debate bounce". In reality, Trump is leading somewhere in the range of 8-10% nationally.

[–]ajbeniusPA 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

If you actually click on the link, these are old polls from September.

[–]TiggerTheTiger1999VA 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

What are the sample details?

[–]DrRallyThong 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

LANDSLIDE

[–]M_DMACHE 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

The GOP in Wisconsin better be playing ball campaigning on the ground. Isn't Lion Ted touted to go campaigning with God Emperor over there soon?

[–]IncognitoCheetosCA 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Is the WI poll an outlier? It looks like the others listed have a wider spread. Someone have some insight?

[–]enjoycapitalismTX 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

WISCONSIN?! MAGA!

[–]WolfgangKUSA 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

These polls are too old IMO. Only anything post debate post "horrible Trump week" matter at this point. Cant really determine anything from these.

[–]Clint0nBukowski 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Is she winning in florida now?

[–]Brobi_WanKenobiSC 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Wisconsin would be YUGE

[–]tittysprinkles1224LA 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Landslide incoming!!!!!

[–]bclautz 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Wow.

[–]reluctant_typer 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Why aren't these showing on RCP?

[–]centipedeboy 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I guess we can't trust polls at all this year. If you click through to reuters site it give hillary 80% chance of winning the election.

[–]moissiensWI 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I've had to do a ton of driving this week in Wisconsin for work and there are Huge Trump signs everywhere on the state roads and a million of them on yards. I did run into my first Hillary sign this week, ever, and it was at one of my neighbors who loves Gwen Moore too...so there is that.

[–]Blistered12WI 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

We're going to turn Wisconsin red folks. Madison may be cucked still, but it's the only place in the state that I've seen Hillary signs. Trump dominates most of the state, I promise you.

[–]maga_landslide_win 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Monster vote incoming.

[–]GodEmperorDonaldMO 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I posted this in r/Politics and it got removed for breaking the "All Caps" Rule

[–]RealSpit6969MAGA 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Not tied in Wisconsin. I can assure you we're secretly winning big. Same thing happened to Scott Walker. Republicans don't speak up in Wisconsin but they vote!

[–]D_R0bAL 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Tied in Wisconsin? Landslide IMMINENT!!!!!!!!!!!