I happily volunteered myself for the Dice-K portion of this debate, then earlier this week watched Daisuke Matsuzaka don his native Japan's uni to pitch against a Cuban national team that has looked otherwise unbeatable. Cha-ching. Six shutout innings, eight K's, no walks, one extra-base hit, no chance of beating him.

Fantasy owners often make the mistake of viewing a player's first or second impression in a new league as truly representative of what we can expect from that guy. In Dice-K's case, that would be ignoring the fact that he's improving as he adapts to the majors. His ERA last season dropped from 4.40 to 2.90. His batting-average against went from .246 to a sterling .211, and he allowed 12 home runs last season as compared with 25 in '07. He also won three more games despite making three fewer starts.

How did he do this? Adjustments that also led to a higher walk rate and slightly lower K rate have made him a better pitcher. I'll explain. Last season, I noticed Matsuzaka had stopped trying to overpower or fool hitters, instead choosing to work them a little more and hit the corners. Makes sense, given that he could overpower hitters in Japan and can't (as often) in the majors. Of course, that meant he allowed more balls to be put in play (lower K rate) and lost hitters who worked him (higher walk rate), but it also meant the balls in play weren't hit as hard. His well-hit average fell from .237 in 2007 to .184 in 2008, while the league average fell from .241 to .218. He was therefore able to minimize the hits (lower batting average) and especially extra-base hits (slugging percentage against dropped 81 points to .324). And because he wasn't trying to make up for clutch hits by trying to put the ball past people, which might have caused further damage, he was a lot more consistent. He allowed more than three earned runs in only four of his 29 starts last season and, accordingly, won more games.

We can't downplay what kind of a change this was for Matsuzaka, and although he still won games, his stats reveal his struggles. Dice-K walked 57 batters and struck out 77 before the All-Star break. After the All-Star break, however, he walked 20 fewer batters and struck out the same number in nine fewer innings, and his well-hit average dropped from .221 -- which was basically league average -- to .139. Great pitchers make adjustments, and given his youth (he's 28) and raw talent, there's no reason to expect that trend toward excellence to end, right?

I really can't see why people would choose Josh Beckett over Dice-K. His health? No way. Beckett is no picture of health; only twice in seven big league seasons has Beckett thrown more than 180 innings. And Dice-K's shoulder was fine once the Red Sox wisely cut back his innings a bit. Beckett's K's? That difference is negligible, as our projections show. The wins? Well, Dice-K won six more games than Beckett last season and has even more wins in the past two seasons. Consistency? Pshah, Beckett allowed four or more earned runs in 10 of his starts and had a 5.65 ERA at home last season. How is that consistent?

The bottom line here is that Dice-K already is better than Beckett, which is why he ranks much higher in our Player Rater. We have little reason to believe Beckett will be much better, but we have every reason to believe Dice-K will. Just ask Cuba.