P1-soriano

After getting off to a slow start in Chicago in 2007, Alfonso Soriano caught fire in September and hit 14 home runs in the season's final month.

AP

  
  
David Sabino, SI.com 

SI's resident fantasy guru, David Sabino, takes a preseason look at the fantasy prospects position-by-position and ranks the candidates in four tiers from the superstars to those who should be left at home. Today, the outfield ...

Depending on the makeup of your league, outfielders are either a blessing or a curse. In a standard 10-team, AL-only league there aren't enough to go around. Boost an NL league to 12 teams and you have the same problem. However in small NL-only and mixed leagues, there are outfielders available on the waiver wire at times during the season (see the Jermaine Dyes and Eric Byrneses of the world). Since there is such a disparity in supply and demand, depending on your league, and a plethora of players with fantasy value at the position, there are plenty of choices from each league.

• Most Valuable: Alfonso Soriano, Cubs; Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
• Most Overrated: Hideki Matsui, Yankees; Austin Kearns, Nationals
• Most Underrated: Nick Markakis, Orioles; Matt Kemp, Dodgers
• Most likely to breakout: Josh Hamilton, Rangers; Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
• Most likely to earn a starting spot: Nate Schierholtz, Giants; David Murphy, Rangers
• Most improved: Michael Bourn, Astros; Billy Butler, Royals
• Most likely to flop: Scott Hairston, Padres; Gary Matthews Jr., Angels
• Comeback outfielders of the year: Vernon Wells, Blue Jays; Jason Bay, Pirates
• Best rookies: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox; Kosuke Fukodome, Cubs
• Best $1 Long shots: Brandon Jones, Braves; Adam Lind, Blue Jays

Locked At the Top

1. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs: Injuries and a failed experiment with yet another new position held Soriano's numbers down early in his first season as a Cub. Once fully healed and re-acclimated to left field, though, he tore up the season's last month, clubbing a big league leading 14 home runs while hitting .320. Few (if any) others have the 40 home run, 30 stolen base, 120 runs scored potential that Soriano brings to your squad.

2. Matt Holliday, Rockies: Despite the effect of humidifiers that gave the Rockies much improved pitching staff a boost, Holliday produced a season reminiscent of the heyday of the Blake Street Bombers. Since World War II only three players reached Holliday's 2007 triple crown stats in a single season: Carlos Delgado ('00), Todd Helton ('00) and Ted Williams (1949). With the entire lineup stoked after getting a taste of the World Series, look for Holliday to get right into the '08 NL MVP race.

3. Carlos Beltran, Mets: You can't blame the Mets' September swoon on Beltran, who, after struggling during the middle of the season turned on the power in August, clubbing 14 HRs while driving in 50 runs from August on. Tack on his fast start in April and his half year totals are a more than respectable .323/20/73/13 steals. Beltran enters his fourth season in New York fully healthy for the first time in two years, and due to lower expectations, will be available wherever you make your first selection. 

4. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox  : Coming off a season in which he destroyed many fantasy fortunes, your fellow drafters are going to be leery of Manny. That's where you swoop in and grab him. Tired of missing significant time with nagging injuries, Ramirez spent the entire offseason as a health and workout fiend and rededicated himself to being on of the American League's most feared sluggers. The biggest knock against him has always been a perceived lack of dedication. Well, that's gone now. He should be a serious challenger in each of the Triple Crown categories in '08.

5. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers: Ordonez had one of the best offensive seasons in recent history last year, only to be overshadowed by the otherworldly numbers Alex Rodriguez produced. Here's some perspective: The last AL hitter with as high an average (.363) and as many RBIs as Ordonez produced in '07 (139) was New York's Lou Gehrig in 1934.

6. Curtis Granderson, Tigers: Granderson can stake a claim as baseball's best overall player after putting up at least 20 doubles, triples, home runs and steals while playing a Gold Glove center field and batting over .300. The scariest part is that he's getting better. Not that there was much worry after posting those stats, but the only potential threat to his playing time, Cameron Maybin, now resides in Florida.

7. Carlos Lee, Astros: El Caballo's first season in Houston was a rousing fantasy success as he matched his '06 season in almost every category. The Astros at the top of the lineup and behind him are better in '08, so look for even more production this year.

8. Grady Sizemore, Indians: Cleveland's pretty boy had pretty numbers yet again, although muted from his incredible '06, when he set a record for extra base hits by a leadoff hitter. Offsetting a 69-point drop in slugging percentage was an 11-steal boost on the basepaths, to set a career high with 33. Don't be discouraged as he'll remain an elite fantasy player for the next decade.

9. Carl Crawford, Rays: With a new name, new uniforms and new ownership, the buzz word around Tampa Bay over the past calendar year has been change. The one thing from the old days that everyone wants to remain constant, though, is the play of Crawford, who, if he played for almost any other team, would be considered one of the best players in baseball by the establishment, and not only the fantasy world.

10. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels: Shoulder issues still plague him, but given his massive (and usual) numbers last year (.324/27/125), his time at DH won't hurt his value one iota. One thing to keep in mind: his days of double-digit steals (15 in '06, only two in '07) might be over as he tries to preserve his health now in his 30s.

11. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: The best pure hitter of this generation almost singlehandedly will win batting average for you in rotisserie leagues and he's stolen 30 or more bases in each of his big league seasons. Sure he's 34, but he's one of the most dedicated and fine-tuned athletes in all of pro sports and will be as productive as ever.

12. Ryan Braun, Brewers: The former Miami Hurricane took the NL by storm in '07, capturing the league's Rookie of the Year accolades as a third baseman. But all wasn't rosy, as his play at the hot corner was so historically horrific he's being switched to left field this season. None of that should affect his potency at the plate, where his 40-20 potential and dual eligibility makes him a must have.

13. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks: Having finally found a home in Arizona, Captain America was one of last season's biggest fantasy bargains, stealing an unprecedented 50 home runs while chipping in 21 home runs and 103 runs scored. Obviously the 50 steals will be difficult to repeat but even with 30 steals, the rest of his line makes him a hot property. Seeing his intensity and production since landing in the desert, it's hard to believe he was unwanted in Baltimore, Colorado and Oakland as recently as 2005.

The Next Best

14. Hunter Pence, Astros: We're still high on the '07 phenom, although a bit worried about his habit of getting hurt by things like patio doors. Twenty five home runs and 100 runs scored are expected.

15. Jeff Francoeur, Braves: With Andruw Jones now in L.A., Francoeur becomes the Braves top run producer.

16. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays: Another player who struggled with injuries in '07 and rededicated himself in the offseason. A dark horse candidate for AL MVP.

17. B.J. Upton, Rays: The perennial top prospect finally got a chance last year at a position (center field) he could actually play, an opportunity that allowed him to demonstrate he is one of the AL's most dynamic players. Given 650 plate appearances as expected, he'll easily join the 30-30 club.

18. Brad Hawpe, Rockies: Good, not great, his coming out party came at a perfect time for the upstart Rockies and should continue for a few more 25 home run, 100 RBI seasons. He's also a candidate for a monster season at some point and this may be the year.

19. Chris Young, Diamondbacks: Only two players in baseball history had fewer RBIs than Young's 68 during a season in which he hit 32 home runs (or more): Rob Deer (64 for the Tigers in '92) and Brad Wilkerson (67 for the Expos in '04). With 59 combined homers and steals, you can ignore the low RBIs, and his batting average (.237) is bound to improve.

20. Josh Hamilton, Rangers: His roller-coaster career should reach new heights in Arlington with a regular spot in center field and the middle of the lineup secured. It would be an upset to not see him at the All-Star Game in Yankee Stadium.

21. Torii Hunter, Angels: The perfect complement to Guerrero, Hunter should reach the mid 20s in home runs and steals for the aggressive Angels.

22. Ken Griffey, Reds: Now 38, Junior's injuries are bound to catch up with him eventually, but he's still probably going to hit almost 30 home runs and drive in 80 to 100 runs. Be sure to have a suitable replacement on hand for the inevitable trip to the DL.

23. Jason Bay, Pirates: Another player with superstar ability who has been muted by multiple injuries. Take a chance that he'll bounce back to the 30 home run level, although you shouldn't expect to see 15 steals again.

24. Andruw Jones, Braves: Don't underestimate the trepidation that Jones was enduring in his final days in Atlanta, not knowing whether he'd remain a Brave. Unlike most of their recent free-agent signings, a relaxed Jones will be a bargain for the Dodgers.

25. Alex Rios, Blue Jays: Solid if unspectacular, Rios is one of fantasy baseball's most overlooked commodities. He's the type of player who wins you championships.

26. Nick Markakis, Orioles: We touted him as a Paul O'Neill lookalike last season and he put up a Paul O'Neill-type season, .300/23 HR/112 RBI. He'll be hard pressed to raise the ribbies, but home runs and average should keep improving.

27. Bobby Abreu, Yankees: Although he didn't experience a boost in home runs in his first full season as a Yankee, the .300 career hitter reached 100 RBIs and 20 steals for the sixth time in seven years.

28. Nick Swisher, White Sox: Swisher needed the White Sox as much as they needed his powerful bat, which should make for an intriguing marriage. He's much more likely to hit 35 home runs than he is the 22 from last year.

29. Gary Sheffield, Tigers: Given the depth and potency of Detroit's lineup, Sheffield should have another 100 RBI season left in those balky shoulders.

From the Risks to the Reaches

30. Adam Dunn, Reds
31. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
32. Matt Kemp, Dodgers       
33. Moises Alou, Mets
34. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
35. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
36. Delmon Young, Twins
37. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
38. Ryan Freel, Reds
39. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
40. Aaron Rowand, Giants
41. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
42. Kosuke Fukodome, Cubs
43. Michael Bourn, Astros
44. Cameron Maybin, Marlins
45. Mark Teahen, Royals
46. Jack Cust, A's
47. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
48. Adam Jones, Orioles
49. Milton Bradley, Rangers
50. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
51. Xavier Nady, Pirates
52. Mike Cuddyer, Twins
53. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
54. Cliff Floyd, Rays
55. Billy Butler, Royals
56. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
57. Shane Victorino, Phillies
58. Corey Hart, Brewers
59. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
60. Jacque Jones, Tigers
61. Willy Taveras, Rockies
62. Austin Kearns, Nationals
63. Matt Diaz, Braves
64. Pat Burrell, Phillies
65. Travis Buck, A's
66. Mike Cameron, Brewers
67. Felix Pie, Cubs
68. Nate McLouth, Pirates
69. Jim Edmonds, Padres
70. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
71. Luke Scott, Orioles
72. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
73. Gary Matthews Jr., Angels
74. Johnny Damon, Yankees
75. David DeJesus, Royals
76. Josh Willingham, Marlins
77. Brian Giles, Padres
78. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
79. Garret Anderson, Angels
80. Dave Roberts, Giants
81. Jose Guillen, Royals
82. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
83. Randy Winn, Giants
84. Carlos Gonzalez, A's
85. Scott Hairston, Padres
86. Jay Bruce, Reds
87. Carlos Gomez, Twins
88. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
89. Brad Wilkerson, Mariners
90. Jason Kubel, Twins
91. Rocco Baldelli, Rays
92. Ryan Church, Mets
93. Ryan Spilborghs, Rockies
94. Mark Kotsay, Braves
95. Adam Lind, Blue Jays
96. Jayson Werth, Phillies
97. Reed Johnson, Blue Jays
98. Chris Denorfia, A's
99. Jerry Owens, White Sox
100. Craig Monroe, Twins
101. Jason Michaels, Indians
102. Jay Payton, Orioles
103. Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
104. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
105. Jonny Gomes, Rays
106. Norris Hopper, Reds
107. Tony Gwynn, Jr., Brewers
108. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals
109. Brandon Jones, Braves
110. Marcus Thames, Tigers
111. Dave Dellucci, Indians
112. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
113. Cody Ross, Marlins
114. Nate Schierholtz, Giants
115. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
116. David Murphy, Rangers
117. Emil Brown, A's
118. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
119. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
120. Josh Anderson, Braves
121. Rajai Davis, Giants

Dunn's prodigious power helps immensely, but be careful with the makeup of the rest of your team because his batting average stings ... There's no doubt that Ankiel can hit and that the Cardinals need him badly this season. What is in question is if his fragile psyche can endure any further scrutiny into potential performance enhancing allegations ... Kemp is one of the brightest and talented young outfielders in the majors, whose attitude is his only downside. Look for Joe Torre to fix that in a hurry, installing him as L.A.'s everyday right fielder ...  Alou has slugged over .500 in four straight years and always produces when he's in the lineup. However you can't expect him to play more than 100 games ... Like his big brother B.J., Justin Upton is a huge talent ready to take the majors by storm. With Quentin now a White Sox, right field is all Upton's ... Few players are more consistent in their inconsistency than Dye. Given his past patterns, he's up for a good year ... Delmon Young is the major leagues' freest swinger, which is something the Twins needed. However he's not going to supply the same numbers Hunter did, so don't expect him to ... Ellsbury's fall production has led to him to become Boston's starting center fielder, leadoff hitter and biggest stolen base threat ... Freel is the favorite to win the Reds' starting job in center, which should lead to another 35-steal season. Worst case scenario has him being a super-sub again (in favor of Hopper or Bruce in center), which will still get him into the lineup five out of every seven days and give him nearly universal eligibility ... The Giants chose to make Rowand their offensive building block, which tells you how long a season it's going to be by the Bay ... Ethier is battling with Juan Pierre for playing time, and unless he's traded, should prevail ... Fukodome will benefit greatly from Lou Pinella's tutelage, although he'll be lucky to pop more than 15 home runs as a rookie ... The Astros basically re-acquired Willy Taveras when they received Bourn as part of the Brad Lidge trade. He's a candidate for 50 steals and 120 runs ... Late last year Detroit manager Jim Leyland suggested that Maybin wasn't major league-ready, which is exactly how the Marlins like to introduce their young players to the big show. He's got much more value in keeper leagues than in the re-draft variety ... Don't call him Pacman, but this Adam Jones is one of the building blocks for the Orioles and could easily be a .275/20/75 producer ... Beware of Bradley, not only for his temper issues of the past, but more important and immediate, is that he had a torn ACL in September and may not be ready for a month or more ... Floyd brings his veteran presence to a team sorely in need of a leader. Between them, Floyd and Gomes should hit 30 home runs ... No longer a part-timer, Victorino takes over in center field in Philly and could be this year's Eric Byrnes ... Bad news for Kearns: the new ballpark in Washington will favor pitchers, and top prospect Chris Marrero has switched to the outfield ... Despite what you may think, new Phillies rightfielder Jenkins is only 33 and will benefit greatly from not constantly having to look over his shoulder at the latest phenom ready to take his job away ... Jacque Jones will likely split time with Marcus Thames and Ryan Raburn in left for Detriot, yet still could drive in 60 runs ... It's widely known that Matt Diaz is murder on lefties (188 at bats, 9 HR, .356 avg. in '07), but he's also a career .310 hitter against right-handers. Despite that, he'll be pushed by young, left-handed swinging Brandon Jones and could end up in a platoon ... Remember that Milwaukee free agent Cameron will miss the first month of the season due to suspension ... Sleeper Alert: Scott showed great promise with the Astros; now with the Orioles, Scott will have a big role in a run-producing spot in the lineup. He should be available late in your draft ... Now with the Twins, Monroe would make a nice fifth outfielder on a fantasy team in need of home runs ... For all of the hype around Melky Cabrera, he's really not a great, if even very good, fantasy player and may never be one ... Scott Hairston is penciled in as the Padres left fielder but could easily lose his job to third base prospect Chase Headley ... Carlos Gonzalez was the main part of the Dan Haren trade for Oakland and has five-tool star potential ... Crisp's value would skyrocket with a trade away from the Red Sox ... Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez has a better chance of supplanting Danny Ricar at second base for the White Sox than he does Swisher or Quentin in the outfield.

Don't Even Think About

122. Juan Rivera, Angels
123. Juan Gonzalez, Cardinals
124. Endy Chavez, Mets
125. Matt Murton, Cubs
126. Wladimir Balentin, Mariners
127. Jason Botts, Rangers
128. Joey Gathright, Royals
129. Chris Burke, Diamondbacks
130. Luis Gonzalez, Marlins
131. Nyjer Morgan, Pirates
132. So Taguchi, Phillies
133. Willie Bloomquist, Mariners
134. Darin Erstad, Astros
135. Skip Schumacher, Cardinals
136. Luis Terrero, Orioles
137. Ryan Langerhans, Nationals
138. Gabe Gross, Brewers
139. Kevin Thompson, Pirates
140. Sam Fuld, Cubs
141. Kevin Mench, Rangers
142. Ryan Sweeney, A's
143. Reggie Willits, Angels
144. Fred Lewis, Giants
145. Seth Smith, Rockies
146. Rob Mackowiak, Nationals
147. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
148. Chris Duffy, Pirates
149. Ben Francisco, Indians
150. Jeff Salazar, Diamondbacks

 

SI.com's 2008 Fantasy Preview:

 Avoiding holes key at catcher
 Power in short supply at first base
 Bargains can be found at second base
 Though top heavy, SS pool is deep
• No position is hotter than hot corner